Many expect the left alliance of CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) to win the upcoming elections scheduled for November 26 and December 7.
Whether the left alliance will get the majority like the UML and Maoist leaders claim will be decided by the fact whether the cadres and voters of the parties cosy up to each other as the leaders at the center have. Whether those who have been voting for sun previously will vote for sickle and hammer of Maoist Center will play an even greater role as UML has left many constituencies of strength to the Maoists.
A total of 102 candidates out of 165 federal constituencies are running with sun as election symbol including a few independent candidates. UML has ceded 61 constituencies to Maoist Center and two to Rastriya Janamorcha. The Maoists have not had to leave any constituency of strength to UML in ticket sharing which means UML are contesting only in the constituencies where it is strong. The fortunes of many Maoist candidates, on the other hand, is in the hands of UML voters.
Will the UML voters vote for Maoist candidates? We have sought the answer to this questions in Kathmandu-6 where UML has a strong presence but has left the constituency to Maoist Center. The constituency includes three wards of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, and seven of Tarakeshwore and five of Tokha municipalities.
Defense Minister Bhimsen Das Pradhan is NC candidate here while Jhakku Prasad Subedi of Maoist Center has been fielded by the left alliance. Pradhan (14,151 votes) had defeated Yogesh Bhattarai (12,874) of UML by around 1,300 votes in the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2013. Maoist candidate Himal Sharma was a distant third with just 5,945.
Will this chunk of UML votes, that is more than double the Maoist votes, all go to Subedi this time? Leaders and cadres of UML and Moist Center all hope they will.
Member of the UML committee for the constituency Vikal Pradhan, however, doubts that will be the case. "There are some who say 'you all would have won if there were sun in the ballots. But how can we vote for sickle and hammer?'" Pradhan revealed what UML voters have told him during the campaign. "We have been telling them that voting for sickle and hammer is akin to voting for sun as the two parties will soon unite," he added.
We reached Bag Bazar, Mahabouddha, Thamel, Samakhusi, Tokha and Tarakeswhore of the constituency and asked over five dozen voters who had voted for UML in the second CA election whether they will vote for the Maoists this time.
Just 28 out of the 63 UML voters we talked to said they will vote for Maoist Center this time. Those saying they will vote for Maoist Center were found more in the municipalities than Kathmandu Metropolis. Many of them are UML cadres who say they will back whatever decision the party takes.
"I have been voting for UML from the beginning. I was married to an NC family. They ask me to vote for tree but my hands don't go anywhere else apart from sun," a woman said. "UML and Maoist Center have allied now. I will, therefore, vote wherever UML tells me to. I will also vote for Maoist Center," she stated.
Naresh Man Maharjan, who was elected ward member from Kathmandu-27 on UML ticket in the recent local election, claimed that the UML voters do not have an option other than voting for sickle and hammer as there will not be sun in the first past the post (FPTP) ballots for this constituency.
"There is no dissatisfaction in the party. Every one of us has been supporting Subedi like he is our own candidate," he stated. "The voters definitely will not stamp on tree on not finding sun. Their hands may go to sickle and hammer instead. Many UML voters, therefore, will vote for Maoist Center," he argued.
But 35, more than half of the UML voters we talked to, could not say they will vote for Maoist Center. These voters mainly cited three reasons for not voting for Maoist Center--Subedi is not from the constituency, violent past of Maoist Center and attraction toward a new party.
"I voted for UML in the local election. Bhimsen Das Pradhan is a local. It will be easier to tell him our problems if we vote for him. What is the use of voting an outsider?" a voter of Mahaboudhha questioned.
Newar community is dominant inside the Ring Road in this constituency. UML voters can vote for NC's Newar candidate as the left alliance has fielded a non-Newar.
The violent past of Maoist Center also seems to have affected a few UML voters. A UML voter from Manamaiju said she will not vote for the left alliance. "I voted for UML earlier but will not vote for the left alliance now. How can I vote for the Maoists who killed so many people? The top leaders have allied for power and have traded us," she fumed.
Ramesh Shahi of Bag Bazar also does not want to vote for Maoist Center due to their past. "We were spared the hardship during the conflict period as we live in the city. But the Maoists made many in the villages suffer just because they were UML. How can we vote for Maoists forgetting all that?" he questioned.
Seven of such UML voters, who call Subedi an outsider and abhor the Maoist violence of past, said they will vote for NC this time. Six of the UML voters who have decided to not vote for Maoist Center said they will vote for a new party. "The old parties didn't do anything apart from giving assurances. I am, therefore, thinking about voting for Bibeksheel Sajha Party this time," a voter from Bag Bazar said.
Twenty-two of the UML voters we talked to said they have yet to decide. Whether this chunk of UML voters will vote for a fellow comrade from Maoist Center or will vote for NC or another party will decide the race in the constituency.
