With the vote counting under the proportional representation (PR) system nearly halfway through, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has secured almost 50 percent of the votes.
In the House of Representatives election held on March 5, voters cast ballots for parties under the PR system for 110 seats.
A total of 10.9 million votes were cast in the election, of which 5.2 million have been counted so far.
According to the ongoing vote count, the RSP has received 49.13 percent of the votes.
The Nepali Congress (NC) has received 16.61 percent, CPN-UML 14.29 percent, Nepali Communist Party 6.79 percent, and Rastriya Prajatantra Party 3.55 percent.
The Harka Sampang-led Shram Sanskriti Party has received 2.6 percent, and JSP Nepal 1.23 percent.
In the House of Representatives election, parties securing at least 3 percent of the votes qualify for seat allocation under the proportional system.
Based on the current count, only the RSP, NC, UML, Nepali Communist Party, and RPP appear likely to cross the 3 percent threshold.
If the vote count continues at the current proportion, the RSP is projected to win 60 proportional seats. Similarly, the NC would get 20 seats, UML 17 seats, Nepali Communist Party 8 seats, and RPP 5 seats.
If the RSP maintains the current proportional vote share, it could secure a two-thirds majority in seats. The RSP has so far won 121 seats in the direct (first-past-the-post) category. Its 4 candidates are leading in ongoing counts.
In some constituencies, RSP candidates are ahead by wide margins. In Gorkha-2, Kabindra Burlakoti is leading by 13,000 votes. In Bardiya-2, Shridhar Pokharel is ahead by 9,276 votes. In Gorkha-1 and Nuwakot-1, however, RSP candidates are leading by narrow margins.
If the RSP wins these remaining constituencies as well, it would secure 125 seats in the FPTP category. Adding the projected 60 proportional seats would bring the RSP’s total to 185.
In the 275-member House of Representatives, a two-thirds majority requires winning 184 seats. If the current trend continues, the RSP appears capable of achieving a two-thirds majority.
