The issue of government formation has suddenly turned volatile with signs of differences visible in the left alliance of CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) that had forged an electoral alliance and announced unification after the election.
There was an understanding to move the issue of unification forward by convening the meeting of unification coordination committee that includes leaders of both the parties on Saturday. But that meeting could not be convened after Maoist Center Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal left for home district Chitwan a day ahead of such an important meeting.
Dahal had remained silent about the differences on government formation but he broke his silence after reaching Chitwan. "We had agreed to take turn to lead the government. I will discuss this issue in the meeting of coordination committee after returning to Kathmandu," he said. He also did not forget to express his commitment toward party unification.
But instead of returning to Kathmandu on Saturday he traveled to Bhairahawa via Nawalparasi. He provided further hints about the cooling relations between UML and Maoist Center to Maoist cadres in Kawasoti of Nawalparasi. "UML was thinking about forming the government on its own as election results started to arrive believing that it will get a majority of its own. It started to talk about unification with us only after seeing that Nepali Congress (NC) was getting almost equal votes in proportional representation (PR) system," he told his cadres. "UML also made efforts to form the government with Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN) in the intervening period. It is now in favor of forming the government with us only after those efforts failed."
He again repeated that he is in favor of unification despite hesitancy in UML about unification with Maoist Center and government formation. He stated he has already burned all the bridges for unification and cannot turn back.
He then reached Bhairahawa on Sunday and spoke about formation of the National Assembly and the increasing distance with Nepali Congress (NC). He opined that the National Assembly cannot be vibrant without NC. He revealed that he told UML Chairman KP Oli to move forward by taking NC into confidence by ending the dispute about Single Transferable Vote system.
There are different estimations about why Dahal has been publicly making these comments outside Kathmandu. One can safely say that he would not have made such public comments if he were committed to forming the government with UML and moving the unification process forward.
One thing is certain though. All the major political parties are talking with each other about government formation. NC leaders have publicly expressed readiness to accept Dahal as prime minister (PM) for five years. Messengers of PM and NC President Sher Bahadur have met Dahal in person and given assurances about accepting him as PM for five years. They have also asked him why he is 'going to end his party by unifying with UML.'
NC leaders have been telling him how it will be difficult for him to come out once he unifies with UML and how his 'political future will also be under risk.'
Second-rung leaders inside Maoist Center are also divided about whether to go for unification. Many argue that UML leaders and cadres will be dominant in the united party, and their own future will not be safe.
Dahal has also talked with FSFN about government formation. Many believe that he left Kathmandu and has broken his silence about unification with UML and government formation after finding FSFN positive about government formation.
UML, on the other hand, is also not staying idle. It has also started discussion with FSFN about government formation. A coalition of UML and FSFN can form the government even without NC and Maoist Center. UML will have 121 lawmakers including those elected through PR system and FSFN 16. They will have a total of 137 lawmakers and one more is needed to form the government. There are five independent candidates in the parliament including Rajendra Lingden, Chhakka Bahadur Lama, Baburam Bhattarai, Durga Paudel and Prem Suwal. UML and FSFN can form a majority government with help of any one of these independent lawmakers.
UML had formal talks with FSFN even on Monday. FSFN leader Rajendra Shrestha said there was not much talk about government formation as the party is interested about constitution amendment despite UML raising the issue of government formation. FSFN has been expressing lack of interest to join the UML-led government in both formal and informal forums.
Dahal is more enthusiastic after hearing such stance of FSFN. He has the option of forming a government with support of NC, FSFN and Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJP) leaving UML if he were to wish so.
The coordination committee for unification of UML and Maoist Center has not be convened after election of the House of Representatives (HoR). Leaders of the two parties are making different comments about government formation, unification and leadership of the government. This has increased uncertainty about unification of the two parties further.
Some UML and Maoist Center leaders have said there is no problem in unification. They claim that the framework for government formation and unification will be made public in a few days. Some of the leaders, however, have commented that the top leadership of the two parties have already parted ways and the possibility of a joint government and unification is also getting smaller.
The meeting of the coordination committee of the two parties expected to be convened after Dahal reaches Kathmandu from Chitwan on Tuesday will make it clear whether he has made the comments to put pressure on UML and gain an upper hand in the talks for government formation and unification, or tried to prepare background for separation from UML.
Everybody is interested about what UML will do if Dahal were to move forward to form a government without UML, and abandon unification process. UML will only have one means to keep NC and Maoist Center out of the government in that eventuality. That means is a proposal to make FSFN Chairman Upendra Yadav PM.
It will be easier for Yadav to join a Dahal-led government than an Oli-led one. He is individually closer to Dahal than Oli. He is also closer to Maoist Center than UML on the issues of Madhes and constitution amendment. He can tell his voters that he helped form a government of the forces that are in favor of constitution amendment.
But what will Yadav do should UML offer the post of PM to him?
Yadav is considered a very shrewd and ambitious player in the game of politics. It is highly unlikely that he will receive another offer for the post of PM. The question of why he formed a government with UML will not remain if he himself were to get the offer for PM as the question will become irrelevant for Madhesis if a Madhesi were to become PM. Probably, nobody in Madhes will ask him why he became PM with support of UML.
Many believe that Yadav sees the possibility of him becoming the next PM as the differences between UML and Maoist Center increase, and has played his cards accordingly. Yadav knows very well that he will become the kingmaker if UML and Maoist Center part ways.
His chances of becoming PM will end if he were to agree to join a UML-led government. But UML can offer him the post of PM as a last resort to keep NC and Maoist Center out of the government if he were to stand in support of Dahal-led government.
Many believe that he is showing himself to be closer to NC and Maoist Center in wait of that ultimate offer.
Those is NC and Maoist Center also have doubts about what Yadav will do if UML were to offer him the post of PM. The biggest deterrent for Dahal against taking the final decision to form a UML-less government is Yadav.
Maoist Center will be out of the government if UML were to offer Yadav the post of PM, and Yadav were to accept. Will Dahal move forward taking this potential risk the efforts to form a government abandoning UML will bring?
