After completing our field reporting in Dang, we noticed a very specific trend upon arriving in Rupandehi-2.
In Dang-2, when talking to voters about the upcoming elections, it took time for them to open up. They would only gradually reveal which party they intended to vote for after discussing many other topics first. In Rupandehi-2, however, as soon as we met voters and introduced ourselves to start the election discussion, many would say right at the beginning, "This time, our vote is for change. We’ve seen enough of the old parties. Now it’s the new ones' turn." Some even said before the conversation truly began, "This time, it’s the bell (RSP)!"
The voters we spoke with did not stop there. Like water flowing continuously from a turned-on tap, they spoke openly about the reasons for being fed up with old parties like CPN-UML, Nepali Congress (NC), and the Maoists (now Nepali Communist Party) among others, and their attraction toward the new party, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). And the statements of many of them were similar to those of the voters in Dang-2.
After hearing this singular response from voters met during the first few hours of roaming this constituency for two days, we felt—are these voters just saying bell with their mouths because of the current RSP atmosphere, regardless of what is in their hearts? Are they feeling hesitant to say they will vote for other parties?
In fact, voters who hide their true intentions and speak according to the prevailing wave exist all over the world. Political scientists and sociologists call such voters shy voters. After suspecting there might be shy voters in Rupandehi, our team had an internal discussion. And then we decided to ask further follow-up questions even to those voters who had already opened up about voting for RSP, to find out if they were actually speaking the truth or were just going with the wave.
As we continued asking follow-up questions, some opened their hearts and said, "Well, everyone says 'bell, bell,' but I will probably vote for my own party!" Some also said, "The wave is for the bell, and I’ve been saying that too until now, but one cannot say what will happen on March 5!" This showed that there are some shy voters in Rupandehi-2 and they are finding it difficult to openly say whom they will vote for.
However, we found this number to be very small. Most of the voters we spoke with while asking follow-up questions remained firm in their initial decision until the very end. Even at the end of the conversation, many said the same thing: "We are in favor of change!"
Rupandehi-2 includes wards 1 to 13 of Butwal Sub-Metropolitan City, wards 1 to 6 of Tilottama Municipality, and wards 1 to 4 of Sainamaina Municipality.
A total of 39 candidates are in the race including UML’s Bishnu Paudel, NC’s Chunna Prasad Sharma (Paudel), Sulav Kharel of RSP, Bishwadeep Pandey of NCP, Dipak Gurung of Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP), Ramesh Lodh of the Janamat Party, along with candidates from various other parties and independents.
The Setopati team spent the last two days visiting all wards in this constituency and spoke with as many voters as possible. We tried to understand the voters' opinions about the parties and candidates contesting the election. We asked what their main concerns are and why they want to vote for the chosen candidates. Based on the analysis of these conversations with voters, we found that RSP’s Kharel is far ahead compared to other competitors in this constituency.
Compared to Kharel, his two competitors, UML’s Paudel and NC’s Sharma are far behind. The big lead we found for Kharel compared to the UML and NC candidates will be very difficult for them to make up for by the election day.
It is not surprising for RSP to be ahead in Rupandehi-2 this time. In the last election, RSP received the highest number of votes under the proportional representation (PR) system here. Also, in the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, RSP had lost to UML in a tough competition. Thus, the highest attraction among voters this time is seen toward RSP, which was first in PR and second in FPTP votes in the last election.
UML’s Paudel is far ahead of NC’s Sharma here. We found that no candidates from other parties besides these three are in the competition. NCP’s Pandey appears in fourth place but is so far behind Paudel and Sharma that he doesn’t seem to be in the race even for the third position.
In this constituency of over 135,000 voters, 18% of those we spoke with have not yet decided whom to vote for. Among these undecided voters, most are those who voted for UML last time followed by those who voted for NC and the Maoists. By the time of the election, they will certainly decide. Paudel can come into the competition only if all of them vote for UML in a unified manner.
But in practice, that is not possible. Because these undecided votes will also be divided. Among them, some might opt for RSP, and some might choose NC, UML, or the Maoists whom they voted for previously.
How did RSP appear so strong in Rupandehi-2? How is the vote that went to other parties in the past shifting to RSP?
In the 2022 election, UML’s Paudel was victorious securing 27,165 votes to defeat RSP’s Ganesh Paudel. Ganesh had lost by just 1,370 votes. At that time, this constituency had been given to the then CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal as part of the electoral alliance with NC and the Maoists. But after the candidacy of Unified Socialist’s Raju Gurung was canceled, the coalition supported Keshav Bahadur Thapa Magar of the Rastriya Janamukti Party who finished third with 22,027 votes.
Under the PR system, RSP became the largest party securing 25,673 votes followed by UML (21,183). NC was third with 13,450.
Looking at the FPTP and PR results of the previous election, it appears RSP had already achieved a very strong position in Rupandehi-2.
Based on the conversations we had with voters, it appears RSP has retained almost all the votes it received in the last election. While talking, we rarely met such voters who voted for RSP in the last election and are changing their vote this time. But we found that many voters who voted for almost all major parties last time are shifting toward RSP this time.
Many voters who voted for UML, NC, Maoist Center, RPP, and other parties in the past said they would vote for RSP this time. Among them, a large number of voters who voted for UML and NC the last time are attracted to RSP this time. On the other hand, more than 85% of the first-time voters we met said they would vote for RSP. In this way RSP is highly likely to win because the votes that went to other parties in the last election and a large portion of new voters are going toward RSP.
On the other hand, the possibility of vote-transfer among other parties in Rupandehi-2 appears low. Almost all the voters who told us they would vote for UML said they had voted for UML in the past as well. Similarly, the majority of those who said they would vote for NC are old Congress voters. The same applies for CPN’s Pandey.
In this way, RSP is pulling votes from UML, NC, Maoists, and all other old parties. It has retained the voters who voted for it in the last election. On the other hand, the possibility of any party like UML, NC, or Maoists pulling votes from another party is extremely low here. This will decrease the size of the votes received by all other parties, while the size of the votes received by RSP will increase significantly.
The RSP vote is likely to increase even more in PR system than in FPTP. This time, even some voters who said they would vote for old parties in the FPTP category are saying they will vote for RSP in the PR system. Meanwhile, we found very few voters among those saying they will vote for RSP who said they would give their PR vote to NC or UML.
Why are voters so attracted to RSP in Rupandehi-2? What is the reason for their attraction?
Just like in Dang-2, there are several reasons behind the attraction toward RSP in Rupandehi-2. Voters expressed an intense desire for change. They complained that expected development had not occurred. Therefore, they stated a desire to bring RSP to power once for change and to make senior leader Balen Shah the prime minister. The pain given by foreign employment and pressure from children also appeared as another reason. Voters also said they were going to change their vote this time because they were fed up with the electoral alliances that occurred here in the past. Some voters also said they felt that the parties going into power should change after the Gen-Z Movement.
