The upcoming House of Representatives (HoR) election in Chitwan-3 is interesting for two reasons.
First, there is a competition between two high-profile female candidates from two different political parties in this constituency. Many assess that the main competition will be between 49-year-old Renu Dahal of Nepali Communist Party (NCP), who served two terms as mayor of Bharatpur Metropolitan City, and 29-year-old Sobita Gautam of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) who won from Kathmandu-2 in her first attempt in the last general election in 2022.
Second, since promulgation of the Constitution in 2015, the traditional big parties, Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, have fielded their own party candidates without forming an alliance with anyone for the first time. In 2017, there was a UML-Maoist alliance, while NC supported Bikram Pandey of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).
In 2022, there was an alliance between NC, Maoists, and CPN (Unified Socialist) formed after split in UML. This time, NC has fielded Tek Prasad Gurung while UML has put forward Shankar Thapaliya. Similarly, after RPP leader Pandey, who three years ago, exited the competition this time, Deepak Thapa Magar has made an entry for the monarchist party.
This parliamentary constituency includes 19 wards of Bharatpur Metropolitan City (wards 6, 8, 9, and 13-28) and all wards of Madi Municipality. More than half of this area consists of Bharatpur and the other half of Madi Municipality.
Looking at the votes obtained by parties in the first-past-the-post and proportional representation (PR) electoral systems during the last election in 2022, an interesting aspect emerges. Although RPP’s Pandey won by securing 35,000 votes, RPP received just 16,700 votes, less than half of that in the PR category.
Bhoj Raj Adhikari of the then Maoist Center, who was defeated by Pandey, secured 25,800 votes, while the Maoist party received 16,000 votes in the PR category. The PR votes of NC and UML also decreased by more than half compared to the previous election in 2017. NC, which received more than 26,000 PR votes in 2017 election, secured just 10,500 votes in 2022.
Similarly, UML had received 24,155 PR votes in 2017 but got 14,500 votes in 2022. RSP, which was formed only four months before the election in 2022, had not even campaigned properly in this area. Despite that, RSP candidate Jita Baral received nearly 15,000 votes in the constituency.
RSP, which received the most PR votes from Chitwan district, secured the highest PR votes even in the constituency with 28,401 votes.
Prior to the parliamentary elections, there was also an alliance during the local elections. Maoist candidate Renu Dahal won mayoral election in Bharatpur with votes of NC and Unified Socialist. In Madi Municipality, however, Tara Kumari Mahato of UML won.
In the local elections, 28 ward chair candidates from the NC-Maoist-Unified Socialist alliance in this area received 45,172 votes. Ward chairs from UML received 30,609 votes, and RPP ward chair candidates received 7,454 votes.
Jagannath Paudel, who led dissatisfied NC cadres and ran for mayor of Bharatpur, received 8,253 votes from the 19 wards falling under the constituency. Six months later, NC received just 10,000 PR votes from the entire constituency.
Let’s analyze what might happen in this election based on these data. NC leaders and cadres interpret the 10,000 votes they received in the previous election, despite a rebel candidate, as the votes that will not go elsewhere. NC leaders claim that since they have not formed an alliance with anyone and no rebel candidate has emerged, the votes of traditional NC voters will return.
Similarly, based on the PR votes received in the previous election, UML also claims that 14,000 votes will not go anywhere. After promulgation of the Constitution in 2015, UML voters were also forced to vote for the Maoists in 2017. Now they have their own candidate. UML leaders say this has significantly improved the atmosphere.
If NC and UML protect their votes, both Renu Dahal of NCP and RSP’s Gautam will come under pressure. Even when the Maoists fielded Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal in 2017, the votes received in the PR category were 22,000. In the last election in 2022, this dropped to 16,000.
Many estimate that Dahal went to Gorkha in 2022 precisely because he saw this place as unsafe after winning due to alliance with UML. The Maoists eventually lost even when fielding a popular candidate in Bhoj Raj Adhikari and aligning with NC and Unified Socialist. Therefore, for Renu Dahal to win this time, she must not only protect the votes the Maoists received in previous elections but also increase them.
The question remains whether she can win the election by showcasing the work she has done in Bharatpur. There are many in this area who praise her for the development of the metropolis, such as bringing paved roads everywhere in the constituency and constructing six-lane roads.
RSP, which became the first party last time despite not campaigning, has fielded Gautam who went there from Kathmandu, this time. In the case of Gautam, who has performed well in parliament and earned fame within the party, the strongest point is that the person who was active in Renu Dahal’s campaign during the metropolitan election is her husband.
He has field experience in this constituency. Many often say that Chitwan is a favorable ground for RSP. Moreover, Gautam might have been sent to Chitwan based on the assessment that the election can be won if a young candidate is fielded there.
However, she faces the challenge of pulling votes from NC and UML and keeping new voters under her influence.
