Two weeks ago, Nepali Congress (NC) leaders had visited the Gunḍu residence of CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli to continue discussions between the two parties over changes in the leadership of provincial governments.
During that meeting, one proposal put forward by Chairman Oli surprised the NC leaders.
“Let’s move forward with the discussions on changing the leadership of the provincial governments. But before that, let’s defeat the budgets presented in Koshi and Sudur Paschim provinces,” Oli told the NC leaders. “In Sudur Paschim, a new budget will have to be introduced on a new date.”
The NC leaders took Oli’s dissatisfaction with the budget introduced by the Sudur Paschim government led by NC leader Kamal Shah as natural. They assumed that Oli may have made the proposal because he believed the budget brought by a chief minister from another party had failed to meet the expectations of his party’s rank and file.
However, Oli’s proposal to defeat the budget of the Koshi government, which was led by Hikmat Karki, his own trusted aide and long-time political ally, was completely unexpected for them.
Oli and Chief Minister Karki share the same electoral constituency in Jhapa. Moreover, Karki had remained by Oli’s side even when Oli was not in power within the UML and began receiving state responsibilities only after Oli rose to power.
Having earned Oli’s trust, Karki is currently serving as chief minister of Koshi for the third time.
It is no secret within UML circles that Oli has been playing various cards with the aim of removing Karki from the post of chief minister by any means. Chief Minister Karki himself is aware of this. However, he has not spoken publicly about it.
“He [Oli] made the same old proposal to remove Karki and make Til Kumar Menyangbo chief minister in Koshi,” an NC leader who attended the meeting with Oli told Setopati. “But his plan to defeat the budget itself and remove his own party secretary from the leadership of the government in a humiliating manner was surprising.”
Although it took the NC leaders by surprise, UML leaders had already been aware of Oli’s plan.
UML leaders say that during a discussion with leaders from Sudur Paschim some time ago, Oli made an unusual remark, saying that “the schemer from Koshi will have to be removed.”
“This was some time after the March 5 election,” said a UML office-bearer close to Oli. “That day, the chairman suddenly said this in front of colleagues from Sudur Paschim. We were also surprised.”
Chief Minister Karki is a UML leader known as Oli’s confidant. His elder brother, Constituent Assembly member Deepak Karki, and sister-in-law Leela Kattel were also long regarded as Oli’s loyal aides.
In the party’s most recent general convention, Chief Minister Karki became a secretary, while Deepak became a central member and his wife Leela became a member of the disciplinary commission.
The fact that Oli has fallen out with the Karki family, which had remained close to him for a long time, has surprised many within the UML.
According to leaders close to Oli, the main reason for his growing resentment toward Chief Minister Karki is the result of shifting power dynamics within the UML. The key factor behind this is party General Secretary Shankar Pokharel.
Chief Minister Karki comes from the All Nepal National Free Students’ Union (ANNFSU) background. He had been close to General Secretary Pokharel since their days in the student organization. As long as Pokharel remained aligned with Oli, Karki faced no problems. In fact, with the trust of both Oli and Pokharel, he rose through the party’s standing committee and became an office-bearer, and even got the opportunity to become chief minister of Koshi for a third time.
“Oli was not in favor of making him a secretary at the last general convention,” said a UML leader from Jhapa. “But after Pokharel proposed that, since Yam Llal Kandel was being made a secretary, another chief minister should also be made one, Oli agreed.”
Karki had a good relationship with Oli as long as General Secretary Pokharel was with Oli. But after the March 5 election, not only did a debate on party reorganization arise strongly within the UML, but the issue of leadership transition also gained momentum. General Secretary Pokharel himself became one of the leaders of that movement.
After Pokharel – a leader he had long looked up to – began advocating reorganization, Karki also left Oli’s camp and stood with Pokharel.
However, Karki’s alignment with Pokharel was not based solely on their cooperation dating back to their ANNFSU days. According to leaders close to Oli, there are several other leaders from Koshi who have already become party office-bearers and whom Oli trusts.
Oli had already been listening less to Karki than to leaders such as Guru Baral, Sherdhan Rai, and Bhanubhakta Dhakal. Aware of growing dissatisfaction with Oli from the grassroots level, Karki is aiming to become the leader of the other camp in the province.
During the distribution of responsibilities after the general convention, Chief Minister Karki was in the race to become the UML’s Koshi in-charge. His brother Deepak wanted to become the party’s Jhapa in-charge. But Oli appointed Sherdhan Rai as the provincial in-charge and Romnath Oli as the Jhapa in-charge. This had also angered the Karki brothers.
Even then, they had not openly stood against Oli. But when a party reorganization task force led by Vice-chairman Ram Bahadur Thapa organized a program in Biratnagar to collect suggestions, Deepak openly took a stand against Oli.
That day, Deepak was among the strongest voices at the event calling for Oli to relinquish the party leadership.
Oli became furious with the Karki brothers after both Chief Minister Karki and his brother Deepak began supporting party reorganization and called for Oli to step down.
According to UML leaders, Oli had already been unhappy with the Karki brothers due to their frequent meetings with former president Bidya Devi Bhandari.
On August 18 last year, Bhandari had visited Biratnagar and held a series of meetings with UML leaders and party members. At the time, Chief Minister Karki met her both collectively and individually.
This occurred at a time when Oli was angry with Bhandari as well. In conversations with those close to him, he reportedly mocked her by saying that “Bidyaji is trying to become a queen mother.”
This was also when Oli had put Bhandari’s renewal of her UML membership on hold after she began eyeing the party leadership. UML leaders say Oli was upset after learning that the chief minister had met Bhandari and held lengthy discussions with her.
“The chief minister had told Oli that Bidya didi should also be accommodated,” said the UML office-bearer. “At the time, Oli tried to mock him by saying, ‘Oh, accommodate her?’ Karki had been on the chairman’s radar from that point as well.”
For all these reasons, Oli wanted to remove Karki as chief minister.
“There wasn’t much difficulty in this either. Karki is the kind of leader who would immediately obey if Oli himself called him and instructed him to resign from the government leadership,” said a UML leader in the Koshi Cabinet. “But it is our chairperson’s old habit to corner those who go against him. That may be why the plan has now gone as far as trying to defeat the budget.”
This time, UML leaders including Til Kumar Menyangbo, a provincial assembly member from Taplejung, had been campaigning against passing the Koshi budget without rewriting it.
Menyangbo is the very leader whom Oli wanted to make chief minister. But after the NC stood in favor of passing the budget, UML lawmakers who had opposed it also found themselves in a difficult position, and the budget was ultimately passed. Oli’s plan to defeat the budget failed.
According to informal conversations with UML leaders, Oli was also dissatisfied with the way Chief Minister Karki was running the government. “From what we have heard, even people recommended by Oli were not appointed,” the leaders said.
In the House of Representatives election held on March 5, Oli was defeated by a wide margin by Balen Shah in Jhapa-5. Before the election, Oli had conducted an intensive door-to-door campaign – something he had never done in his long political career. Leaders say that while speaking with party cadres and voters, he sensed deep dissatisfaction at the local level.
The majority of UML voters in Jhapa-5 openly complained about Chief Minister Karki, his brother Deepak, provincial assembly member Hom Bahadur Thapa and his brother Govinda Thapa.
According to party workers, the combined influence of the two families has been accused of monopolizing the party’s resources, ticket distribution and decision-making process. Oli continues to support the Thapa family, they say, while he has completely distanced himself from the Karki family.
UML leaders say Oli has interpreted his defeat this time more as a result of weaknesses in local leadership than a decline in his personal popularity. They say Oli’s tendency to rarely acknowledge his own shortcomings has further widened the distance between him and Karki.
The influence of the Karki and Thapa families within the UML in Jhapa-5 has, in fact, existed for a long time under Oli’s patronage. Like the Karki brothers, the Thapa brothers have also established a strong hold over the party structure.
Party workers accuse these families of exercising undue influence over everything from the distribution of tickets at the local level to party resources. Rom Oli, who is known as Oli’s brother, is also the son-in-law of the Thapa family. Devendra Dahal of Damak is another leader trusted by Oli.
Chief Minister Karki and his brother Deepak do not have good political relations with anyone from Rom Oli to the Thapa family and Devendra Dahal. UML leaders say that as the chairman continued to turn a deaf ear to them and only listen to those leaders, the Karkis eventually stood against him.
In addition, reports have repeatedly reached Oli that the Karki family had collaborated several times with long-time rival Rabin Koirala and his team and “conspired” against his own team.
“Oli has fallen out with Karki because of all these reasons,” said a leader close to the chief minister. “Let’s see how this ultimately unfolds.”
