Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa has filed his candidacy from Sarlahi-4, leaving Kathmandu-4, where he had consistently won in the past and developed his political base.
Along with Thapa, Amaresh Kumar Singh, who previously won twice from NC and once as an independent candidate, has filed his candidacy from Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) this time. Similarly, Amanish Yadav from CPN-UML, Raganis Raya Yadav from Nepali Communist Party (NCP), and Rameshwar Raya Yadav from Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal are also in the competition.
Before the last House of Representatives election in 2022, there were rumors that Thapa would contest from Sarlahi, but he ultimately stayed in Kathmandu. This time, however, he has moved to Sarlahi-4, leaving his stronghold of Kathmandu-4 to young candidate Sachin Timalsena. In the fluid political situation following the Gen-Z movement, some have taken Thapa's sudden change of constituency as a challenge, while others have commented that he descended to Madhes seeking a safe zone after Kathmandu became insecure.
What is the situation in Sarlahi-4 in terms of political power balance?
Sarlahi-4 is considered a traditional stronghold of NC. Since Mahantha Thakur, who won three elections held between 1991 and 1999, left NC, Amaresh Kumar Singh had been contesting in this area. He won in 2013 and 2017 from NC and won as an independent candidate in 2022. In the first Constituent Assembly election held in 2008, Shiva Pujan Raya of the then Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum was victorious from Sarlahi-4.
In the 2022 election, Nagendra Kumar of NC was the candidate from the ruling alliance which included and the then CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist) among others. While Nagendra secured 18,253 votes, Singh won by securing 20,017 votes. Despite being in the alliance, Shiva Pujan Raya of Maoist Center fielded his daughter Madhumala Kumari Yadav as an independent candidate. She secured 14,622 votes. Rakesh Mishra from Janata Samajbadi Party, who was in fourth place, received just 5,813 votes.
In terms of proportional representation (PR) votes, NC was the largest party in the constituency securing 16,028 votes. Janamat Party led by CK Raut received 12,595 votes even though the party's candidate in the constituency, Ram Babu Raya, received only 3,400 votes. The Maoists received the third-highest PR votes securing 9,700 votes while UML got 9,471 votes.
To see how much political power each party has at the local level, we have also analyzed the votes received by major parties in the wards located in this constituency. This constituency includes Balara Municipality, Ramnagar Rural Municipality, Dhankaul Rural Municipality, Godaita Municipality, and wards 1, 2, and 3 of Basbaria Rural Municipality. Similarly, wards 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 14, and 15 of Barathawa Municipality and wards 1 to 4 of Bishnu Rural Municipality also fall within this election constituency.
Both the mayor and deputy mayor of Balara Municipality located in this area were won by the then Maoist Center (currently NCP). Loktantrik Samajbadi Party Nepal (LSP) was second, and NC third. In Ramnagar Rural Municipality as well, both the chairperson and vice-chairperson were won by Maoist Center. NC was second. In Dhankaul Rural Municipality, both the chairperson and vice-chairperson were won by NC. Maoist Center was second. Similarly, both the mayor and deputy mayor of Godaita Municipality were won by LSP, while NC was second.
Basbaria Rural Municipality, whose three wards fall in the constituency, was won by JSP. NC was second for both mayor and deputy mayor. UML won both mayor and deputy mayor in Barathawa Municipality whose seven wards fall in this constituency. The second position for mayor was held by the Maoists, while NC was third. NC was second and the Maoists third in deputy mayor position. In Bishnu Rural Municipality, whose four wards fall in the constituency, both chairperson and vice-chairperson were won by NC, while JSP was second.
Now let's analyze the votes received by the major parties in the 51 wards under this election constituency. NC has won the most wards here. While NC won 18 wards, Maoist Center won 12 wards. Similarly, UML won 10, LSP 8, and JSP 2 wards. NC secured the highest votes among the candidates for ward chair of these parties. NC ward chair candidates secured 23,143 votes. Maoist Center was second with 18,524 votes LSP third with 14,227. Similarly, UML ward chair candidates received 11,479 votes. JSP’s candidates received 6,786 votes.
The PR votes for the House of Representatives election held in November 2022 turned out differently than the results from the local level election held in April that year.
In the local level election, ward chairs from the CK Raut-led Janamat Party secured 2,300 votes, but in the House of Representatives election, Janamat Party got 12,500 PR votes. Although LSP ward chairs received more than 14,000 votes at the local level, the party received only 5,100 votes in PR system. Similarly, although ward chairs elected from Maoist Center received more than 18,000 votes at the local level, the party could not cross 10,000 in PR system during the parliamentary election. It received only 9,700 votes.
UML's votes did not vary much. UML, which received 11,400 votes at the local level, secured 9,471 PR votes. NC's PR votes also decreased compared to the local election. NC, which crossed 23,000 votes at the local level, secured only 16,000 in PR system.
