Ghanashyam Bhusal, who is contesting as independent candidate with support of the ruling coalition after CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli denied him the ticket, seems to be just edging UML candidate Chhabi Lal Bishwokarma in the House of Representatives (HoR) constituency of Rupandehi-1.
Bhusal was in the then Khanal-Nepal faction of UML during the internal dispute but did not quit UML when the aggrieved faction formed CPN (Unified Socialist). He, however, continued to defy Oli and even contested for the post of vice chair during the general convention held in November 2021 in Chitwan even as Oli tried to hand-pick all the office-bearers including party chairman, and central members.
He quit the main opposition party after Oli refused to make him HoR candidat'Guest appearance' set to cost ex-minister Bhanubhakta Dhakal deare in the upcoming election and filed nomination as an independent candidate. The ruling coalition including Nepali Congress (NC), CPN (Maoist Center) and Unified Socialist among others then decided to support Bhusal with Maoist Center, that was allotted the constituency in seat-sharing arrangement within the coalition, not fielding its candidate.
The constituency includes Rohini Rural Municipality, and Devdaha Municipality, ward numbers 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 of Omsatiya Rural Municipality, and ward numbers 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16 and 17 of Tilottama Municipality.
NC is the strongest party in the constituency based on the votes received at the ward level in the recent local election. The grand old party received 32,999 votes in the constituency, UML 30,394, RPP 14,556, Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) 6,695, Maoist Center 4,202 and Unified Socialist 4,047.
But UML had received the largest share of votes in the constituency in the Proportional Representation (PR) electoral system in 2017 at 26,649. NC had secured 21,328, Maoist Center 6,262, the then Rastriya Janata Party (largely LSP now) 3,467 and then Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (largely JSP now) 9,631.
Setopati reached almost all the wards in the constituency and talked with 250 voters about the upcoming election, their preferred parties/candidates, the reasons for their preference, and the most important issues for them among other things.
Seventy-seven (31%) of them said that they would vote for Bhusal, 71 (28%) for UML’s Bishwokarma, 27 (11%) for Naresh Pachhai of Rastriya Swatantra Party led by Rabi Lamichhane, 10 (4%) for Dhaniram Chaudhary of Nagarik Unmukti Party, eight (3%) for independent candidate Tikaram Chapagai, and 17 (7%) for other indifferent different candidates. Forty (16%) of the voters said that they had yet to decide who to vote for.
Fifty-four of the 77 who pledged to vote for Bhusal are traditional NC voters, 10 are UML voters, five Maoist voters, four Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) voters, two RPP Voters and four first-time voters.
Some NC voters, however, don’t seem happy with the party for supporting Bhusal and stated that they would vote for Rabi Lamichhane’s party.
Bishwokarma, meanwhile, seems to be stopping massive flight of UML voters toward Bhusal even though some seem to have sympathy for him at the way he was treated by Oli and said they would vote for Bhusal. Fifty-four of the 71 who pledged to vote for Bishwokarma are traditional UML voters while nine are traditional voters of RPP that has allied with UML, six former NC voters, one Maoist voter and one first-time voter.
But he still seems to be leaking UML votes to Swatantra Party, and Chaudhary of Nagarik Unmukti Party and independent candidate Tikaram Chapagai who both have UML background.
Chapagai, who had lost the mayoral election in Devdaha to an NC candidate in 2017, was aspiring for the HoR ticket this time and filed nomination as independent candidate quitting as the party’s Devdaha chair after Bishwokarma was made UML candidate. Similarly, Chaudhary was with UML’s trade union wing before joining Nagarik Unmukti Party only five months back.
Thirteen of the 27 who pledged to vote for Swatantra Party said that they had voted for UML in past while 11 are former NC voters, four first-time voters and one Maoist voter.
Similarly, seven of the 10 who pledged to vote for Chaudhary are former UML voters. Some Tharu voters who traditionally voted for UML look set to vote for Nagarik Unmukti Party led by Resham Chaudhary not just due to the candidate’s past association with UML.
The undecided 40 voters include 19 who said that they had voted for NC in the past and 18 who had voted for UML, and three Maoist voters. The NC voters seem undecided about whether to vote for Bhusal or candidates from new parties, while the UML voters seemed undecided about whether to vote for Bishwokarma or other candidates. Chapagai looks set to attract some of these UML voters.
Bhusal seem to suffer a bit from the fact that he failed to resolve the problem of fertilizers for farmers even when he was agriculture minister in the Oli Cabinet, while some seem to praise him for his boldness and the capacity for effectively raising their issues due to his good oratory skills.
He seems to be marginally ahead of UML’s Bishwokarma who is leaking traditional UML votes not just to Bhusal but also Chaudhary and Chapagai with UML background in the past. Biswhokarma also does not seem to be attracting much voters from UML’s ally JSP in the constituency as Setopati didn’t find even a single JSP voter who pledged to vote for him.
But the margin is wafer thin and can be easily surmounted by swing of some voters in the next few days.
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