The ‘friendly competition’ in Sarlahi-2 constituency for the House of Representatives (HoR) between two influential leaders of Madhes Province in the ruling coalition—Rajendra Mahato and Mahindra Raya Yadav—looks set to be a very tight one.
Yadav, who joined Baburam Bhattarai who split from Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) to form Nepal Samajwadi Party (NSP), is contesting with the symbol of CPN (Maoist Center) while Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP) leader Mahato is returning to Sarlahi after being elected from Dhanusha in the last HoR election in 2017.
The constituency was allotted to Maoist Center while deciding sharing of seats in the ruling coalition. But Mahato from LSP—which allied with the ruling coalition in the province after JSP quit the coalition and decided to ally with the main opposition CPN-UML just before filing of nominations—also filed candidacy from the constituency and the coalition initially said that there would be friendly competition between Yadav and Mahato.
LSP claims that there was an informal agreement in the ruling coalition to not officially endorse Yadav or Mahato but the ruling coalition later issued a statement clarifying that Yadav is the official coalition candidate for the constituency to the chagrin of LSP.
The constituency includes ward numbers 5, 6, 7 and 8 of Bishnu Rural Municipality; Brahmapuri, Parsa and Kaudena rural municipalities; Malangawa and Haripurba municipalities; ward numbers 8, 9, and 10 of Kabilasi Municipality; and ward number 15 of Ishworpur Municipality.
Setopati reached almost all the wards in the constituency and talked with 261 voters about the upcoming election, their preferred parties/candidates, the reasons for their preference, and the most important issues for them among other things.
Sixty-eight (26.05%) of them said that they would vote for the coalition’s official candidate Yadav of NSP who is contesting with Maoist Center’s election symbol, 62 (23.75%) said that they would vote for LSP’s Mahato while 40 (15.33%) said that they would vote for Raj Narayan Sah of CPN-UML who is also supported by JSP.
Nineteen (7.3%) said that they would vote for Janamat Party led by CK Raut but more than half of them could not name the party’s candidate in the constituency Naresh Prasad Kushwaha. Eight (over 3%) said that they would vote for Jaya Karan Mahato of Rastriya Swatantra Party led by Rabi Lamichhane.
Forty-six (17.6%) of the voters said that they had yet to decide who to vote for. Nine of these undecided 46 voters said that they would not vote for anyone in this election while three frankly said that they would vote for anyone who gives them money.
NC is the strongest party in the constituency based on the votes received by the parties at the ward level in the recent local election securing 24,620 votes. JSP had secured 19,642 votes, LSP 12,371, Maoist Center 7,737, Janamat Party 3,042, and CPN (Unified Socialist) formed after split of UML 2,221.
The then Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) including both Mahato and Yadav had secured 23,998 votes from the constituency in the proportional representation (PR) electoral system in 2017, NC 15,101, UML 3,271, Maoist Center 2,978 and the then Federal Socialist Forum Nepal 5,136.
But much has changed in the intervening period and even after the recent local election, and the dynamics in the constituency is very complicated.
JSP was in the ruling coalition at the time of recent local election but has left the ruling coalition now and is supporting UML’s Sah in this election. All the votes received by JSP in the local election may also not go toward Sah as Yadav was also with JSP at the time of local election and quit JSP together with Bhattarai only after that. Many of those JSP votes may go to Yadav now even though he is contesting against the UML-JSP alliance as JSP has not fielded a candidate in the constituency.
No other candidate apart from Yadav and Mahato has won in parliamentary elections in the constituency including most of the areas of the current Sarlahi-2 since the mid-term election in mid-1990s.
Both Yadav and Mahato have become ministers (federal) thrice with the latter becoming minister only after the Janaandolan II in 2006. People in the constituency address both the leaders as ministers but struggle to name the party the two leaders were affiliated to at different times as they have changed parties multiple times.
Yadav, who had lost the first parliamentary election after restoration of democracy in 1990 from Sarlahi-1 on ticket of CPN (Manandhar Group), has won from the areas including the current Sarlahi-2 constituency in all parliamentary elections apart from the First Constituent Assembly (CA) Election in 2008, when he was elected from the then Tarai-Madhes Loktantrik Party through the PR electoral system.
He was elected to the House from Sarlahi-1 on ticket of CPN-UML in the subsequent two parliamentary elections after the first parliamentary election after restoration of democracy in 1990.
He joined the Madhes movement after the Janaandolan II and was elected to the First CA from the then Tarai-Madhes Loktantrik Party through the PR electoral system.
Mahato like Yadav had also lost the first parliamentary election after restoration of democracy in 1990 from Sarlahi-2 on ticket of Nepal Sadbhavana Party. He lost the next election three years later from the same constituency but became lawmaker defeating former prime minister (PM) Surya Bahadur Thapa five years later.
He was elected to the First CA from Sarlahi-4, which included many areas of the current Sarlahi-2 constituency, on ticket of Sadbhavana Party formed after split of Nepal Sadbhavana Party.
Yadav and Mahato had contested from Sarlahi 2 in the Second CA election in 2013 when Yadav beat Mahato by 2,744 votes.
Yadav had defeated NC’s Jangi Lal Raya in Sarlahi-2 in the last election while Mahato had defeated NC’s Bimalendra Nidhi in Dhanusha five years back.
Mahato surprisingly decided to contest from Sarlahi-2 and not from Dhanusha in the eleventh hour despite NC’s Nidhi opting to remain in the PR list of the grand old party and not contest in the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system.
NC, which was the strongest party in the recent local election, has not fielded candidate in the constituency as part of the seat-sharing agreement in the ruling coalition. The party’s votes will, therefore, be split between the two candidates who are both in the ruling coalition. But Mahato looks set to get more NC votes despite Yadav being the official coalition candidate in the constituency.
The 68 voters who pledged to vote for Yadav included 15 traditional NC voters while the 62 opting to vote for Mahato included 20 NC voters.
The confusion within the ruling coalition in the constituency also seems to have luckily favored Mahato. NC had initially awarded ticket for the provincial assembly constituency of Sarlahi-2(A) to Jangi Lal Raya. But Sunil Kumar Sah of NSP contesting with election symbol of Maoist Center was later made the official coalition candidate in that constituency and the grand old party urged Raya to withdraw his candidacy in support of Sah.
But Raya refused to withdraw his candidacy and NC has punished him since then. Mahato has astutely supported Raya in the election for provincial assembly to attract the aggrieved NC voters angry with the leadership for giving both the federal constituency of Sarlahi-2 and the provincial one of Sarlahi-2(A) to NSP.
Voters in the constituency also look set to be split along caste lines. Most of the Yadav voters Setopati talked to said that they would vote for Yadav and a few ones for Janamat Party but no Yadav voter pledged to vote for Mahato.
Yadav also seems to attract votes from the Muslim community and many Muslim voters said that he helped many mosques in the area when he was minister.
Mahato, who has not always contested from the constituency, seems to be attacking Yadav pointing that Yadav has not done much for the constituency despite always being elected from the constituency and thrice becoming minister.
Mahato’s supporters also allege that Yadav, who has been with UML in the past and is now with Bhattarai-led NSP and is contesting with election symbol of Maoist Center, is not absolutely committed to the Madhesi agenda like Mahato is.
Also read:
