Rabi Lamichhane of Rastriya Swatantra Party seems to be the firm favorite in the election for House of Representatives (HoR) in Chitwan-2.
CPN-UML candidate Krishna Bhakta Pokharel, who has been elected from the constituency in the last two general elections, and common coalition candidate from Nepali Congress (NC) Umesh Shrestha may well be competing for the second spot.
The constituency includes Kalika Municipality, Ichchhakamana Rural Municipality and ward numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12 and 29 of Bharatpur Metropolitan City.
UML received the largest number of votes in the wards of this constituency at 35,343 while NC got 24,531 votes in the recent local election. CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist) received 7,387 and 3,569 votes respectively, which means the three parties in the ruling coalition together secured a few more than that of UML.
UML had secured 29,476 votes in the proportional representation (PR) electoral system from the constituency, NC 24,217, and Maoist Center 11,785 in the last general election in 2017.
Pokharel and Shrestha, in this way, should be competing for victory on the basis of the votes received in the recent local election and the last general election, but Lamichhane's entry seems to have changed the calculus in this constituency.
Setopati reached almost all the places in the constituency and talked with 200 voters about the upcoming election, their preferred parties/candidates, the reasons for their preference, and the most important issues for them among other things.
Seventy-eight (39%) of them said they would vote on bell, the election symbol of Rastriya Swatantra Party, 40 (20%) of them said they would vote for UML’s Pokharel, 31 (15.5%) said they would vote for NC’s Shrestha, and five (2.5%) for RPP. Forty-six (23%) voters said they had yet to decide or did not want to reveal their choice.
Lamichhane, who doesn’t have party organization in the constituency and is contesting an election for any kind of public office for the first time having recently resigned as journalist, seems to be such an overwhelming favorite that the number of voters who said they would vote for him is greater than that of those preferring to vote for Pokharel and Shrestha combined.
And 15 of the 46 who said they had yet to decide also confided that they may ultimately vote for Lamichhane come the day for voting.
Chitwan-2 is basically a UML fortress and Pokharel was elected from the constituency in the Second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2013 and the parliamentary election in 2017. But Lamichhane, who has made no political contribution in the constituency, seems to be the overwhelming favorite.
Twenty-eight of the 78 who said that they would vote for Lamichhane had voted for UML in the last election and 24 for NC. Five are new voters and three had voted for Maoist Center while 18 of the 78 did not reveal who they had voted for in the last election.
Setopati has talked with voters before the election, and even after casting vote (in Kathmandu Metropolitan City) in the parliamentary and local elections five years back and in the recent local election.
The voters are generally reluctant to reveal their preference be it before election or after casting their vote, but those who said that they would vote for Lamichhane in Chitwan-2 this time were very enthusiastic to talk, reminiscent of many of those who spoke to Setopati after voting for Balen Shah for the post of Kathmandu mayor in the recent local election.
Most of those revealing that they would vote for Lamichhane seem to firmly believe that he will be elected from the constituency.
There may be many reasons for such a massive swing toward Lamichhane but the main reason seems to be frustration and disenchantment with the major political parties. Many in the constituency seem to have given up on the big parties and seem to have no expectations whatsoever from these parties.
Another reason behind the preference for Lamichhane is the people’s hope on him. Most of them know that his party will not win enough seats to form the next government but they seem to believe that he will speak for the people in the parliament even if he is the only lawmaker from his party.
His work as television presenter seems to be another reason for winning the confidence of voters. Most of those who revealed that they would vote for him praised Lamichhane for raising voice against irregularities and helping the helpless through his television programs.
The incident of his arrest on August 15, 2019 on the charge of abetting suicide of fellow journalist Shalik Ram Pudasaini also seems to have worked in his favor. Lamichhane was tried in Chitwan in the case after being arrested from the office of News24 Television in Kathmandu.
He was already a celebrity due to his television shows and there were demonstrations almost every day in his support in Chitwan. His supporters claimed that he was unjustly arrested and the then KP Sharma Oli government was conspiring to get him jailed.
A large number of people had gathered at the bank of Narayani river when he was released on bail on August 26, 2019.
The women and youths in the majority of households in the constituency seem to be in favor of electing Lamichhane this time. Family members of even cadres of NC and UML said that they would vote for Lamichhane. Setopati also found some who claimed that they were NC and UML cadres, but would vote for Lamichhane.
Lamichhane was not sure about whether to contest from Kathmandu or Chitwan in this election and was also eyeing Kathmandu-2 and 3. He apparently had even commissioned a private company to conduct survey in Kathmandu and Chitwan.
But he had not forgotten the goodwill of people from Chitwan when he was arrested, and the sea of people that gathered along the Narayani bank upon his release, that perhaps ignited the fire for politics in him, may ultimately have made him decide to file candidacy from Chitwan.
The voters in Chitwan-2 seem to be more than eager to pay him back for his confidence on the people of Chitwan.
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