Since the promulgation of Constitution in 2015, major political parties in Nepal have competed in two consecutive elections by forming alliances.
These coalitions often guaranteed success for candidates, with alliance nominees winning in the majority of the 165 constituencies nationwide. However, certain constituencies remained outliers where alliance candidates were defeated twice in a row.
In 2017, Nepali Congress (NC) leader Minendra Rijal defeated CPN-UML’s Rishikesh Pokhrel who was backed by the left alliance including the then CPN (Maoist Center). Conversely, in 2022, UML’s Pokhrel defeated Sujata Koirala, who represented a broad coalition of NC, Maoist Center, and CPN (Unified Socialist) formed after splitting from UML.
The practice of entering the electoral battlefield with pre-poll alliances has come to a halt this time. Major parties are competing independently. The question remains: who will the voters of Morang-2, who have consistently defeated alliance-backed parties in the last two elections, favor now that everyone is fighting solo?
For the upcoming House of Representatives election on March 5, 17 candidates, including those from political parties and independents, are in the fray.
The prominent contenders include Dilip Bagadiya (Agrawal) from UML, Minendra Rijal from NC, Chandrabir Rai from Nepali Communist Party (NCP), Krishna Kumar Karki from Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), and Kansa Raj Rajbanshi from Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). Other candidates include Meghendra Kumar Rokka from CPN (Maoist), Binod Kumar Singh Gangai from Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP), Ghanshyam Chaudhary (Janamat Party), Dhan Bahadur Limbu (Mongol National Organization), and Abuho Rairah (Shram Sanskriti Party).
A multilateral contest is expected among UML, NC, RSP, and NCP.
UML, which won this seat in 2022, did not give ticket to the incumbent Pokhrel, choosing instead Bagadiya who was elected mayor of Rangeli Municipality in 2017 from Maoist Center. Bagadiya had joined UML in 2022 and was re-elected mayor.
An industrialist in Morang, Bagadiya’s influence was so dominant that he led UML to victory in 46 out of 47 positions in Rangeli leaving NC with no seats there. His ticket was secured by this local influence, his close ties with UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, and the fact that the previous lawmaker Pokhrel became embroiled in controversy after his wife Anjala was linked to a cooperative fraud scandal.
Minendra Rijal, who saved NC from a total washout in Morang in 2017 by defeating the Left Alliance, was denied a ticket in 2022 by the then NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba in favor of Sujata Koirala. Despite the alliance, Koirala could not win the seat Rijal had previously held alone. This time, NC President Gagan Thapa granted the ticket to Rijal, despite Rijal having opposed Thapa’s call for a Special General Convention. In 2017, Rijal had secured 35,819 votes against Pokhrel’s 34,014.
Historically, while Jhapa was considered a UML stronghold, Morang was the fortress of NC being the home district of BP Koirala and his younger brother Girija Prasad Koirala. That reputation was shattered in 2017 when leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Mahesh Acharya lost, leaving Rijal as the sole defender of the party's prestige in the district.
The narrative of Morang-2 as a traditional fortress for NC was further shattered in 2022. Even with the support of the Maoists and Unified Socialist, Sujata Koirala (31,940 votes) lost to UML’s Pokhrel (33,148 votes) while RSP’s Thagendra Prasad Nyaupane came third with 4,987 votes.
The current RSP candidate Krishna Karki, is already facing controversy. A photo of him allegedly involved in an arson incident at the Parliament building on September 9 has gone viral. Additionally, past social media posts from his time in Japan, where he accused RSP President Rabi Lamichhane of involvement in cooperative fraud, have resurfaced. Meanwhile, NCP candidate Rai is a veteran left leader who previously served as the Morang chairman of Unified Socialist party.
UML leads the area with 27,914 votes, according to proportional representation (PR) votes in 2022 followed by NC (23,395), Maoist Center (7,537), RSP (7,301), RPP (3,866), and JSP (1,181).
Morang-2 comprises Ratuwamai and Sunbarshi municipalities, wards 5 and 6 of Pathari Shanishchare Municipality, wards 1,2 and 5 of Kanepokhari Rural Municipality, and wards 1, 2, 3, 8 and 9 of Rangeli Municipality. There are a total of 129,184 registered voters in the constituency for this election.
