Leaders close to CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli have started factions to succeed Oli as party chief.
Deputy general secretary Bishnu Paudel and standing committee member Shankar Pokharel, both Oli's lieutenants, are vying for general secretary, the second most powerful position in the party.
Similarly, Subash Chandra Nembang have also staked claim for the post of senior vice-chair, the second ranked post in the party, that many considered was envisioned in the party statute during the recent statute general convention for current General secretary Ishwar Pokharel.
A leader close to Nembang claims that Pokharel, who was confident that no one will compete with him for the post, is rattled after Nembang staked claim for the post. "Subash Nembang is not someone who will speak unnecessarily. He has not said so for the sake of bargaining," the leader adds. "He definitely has not staked claim without consulting Oli. He has staked claim to fight election if necessary."
A leader close to Pokharel, however, claims that Nembang has staked claim for bargaining pointing that his stature does not suffice for the post and he is not someone who works to build party organization. "His expertise in the parliamentary front, not the party front. He has said so only to secure his position as vice-chair," the leader argues.
Pokharel is senior to Nembang in UML politics despite him losing two of the last four parliamentary elections even as Nembang has emerged victorious in all four. But UML cadres take Nembang as reliable associate of Oli in recent times.
There may, therefore, be a fierce contest if the two were to file candidacy for senior vice-chair.
Setopati talked with many party leaders in recent days and they estimate that the Pokharels—Ishwar and Shankar—will ally to get a hold on the party, and Paudel and Nembang will form an alliance to challenge that.
A leader from the putative Paudel-Nembang faction says, "This is not just conjecture. Preparations have been made for that."
The leader claims that the leaders from the erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction, and the former Maoists will also support the faction to give it an upper hand. "It may differ if KP Oli intervenes but there is no chance of him intervening because all the leaders are ready to help him."
The leader confides that Paudel and Shankar may still agree to leave general secretary for the other and become vice-chair but there is no chance of such deal between Ishwar and Nembang. "Paudel is a stronger contender if there is election for general secretary. Shankar may, therefore, opt for another post to secure his politics," the leader argues.
Surendra Pandey from the erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction has also staked claim for the post but Paudel and Shankar are the stronger contenders.
Only Oli can stop this unannounced factionalism among his confidants. It will be easier for consensus if he intervenes as the number of office-bearers will be raised to accommodate the aspirants. But the party looks headed for election for office-bearers if Oli stands by his public statements that he will support whoever comes with consensus or gets more votes.
Many feel that the person who becomes general secretary in the 10th general convention will be party chief in the next. The party's statute has set a ceiling of 70 years for party leadership. Most of the senior leaders including Oli, Bhim Rawal, Ishwar Pokharel, Ram Bahadur Thapa, Subash Nembang, Yuvaraj Gyawali, Ashta Laxmi Shakya and others will cross 70 before the next general convention.
Paudel and Shankar will both be under the age limit before the next general convention and whoever becomes general secretary now will get a head start in the race to become party chief after the 11th general convention.
Paudel looks set to be backed by Nembang, Prithvi Subba Gurung, Chhabi Lal Bishwokarma, Khim Lal Bhattarai, Raghubir Mahaseth , Mahesh Basnet, Gokul Baskota, Basanta Nembang and others, and leaders close to him claim that most from the erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction and ex-Maoists will also back him.
Shankar, meanwhile, will be backed by Ishwar, Bishnu Rimal, Rajan Bhattarai, Bhanubhakta Dhakal, Karna Thapa, Khagaraj Adhikari and others.
The equation may prevail even in the contest between Nembang and Ishwar. A few leaders who have pledged allegiance to Paudel, however, have confided with Setopati that they will back Ishwar for senior vice-chair.
A leader close to Nembang-Paudel alliance claims that many who are counted as being close to the Pokharels will shift camps if there is election. The leader adds that over 1,300 out of almost 2,200 general convention representatives back the faction.
Oli's intervention may change all that though.
