Gagalphedi village is located in Kageshwari Manohara Municipality of Kathmandu. When we reached the, the morning sun had just touched the village. Thirty-year-old Sonam Lama was sitting hunched over on the porch of his house. His hand moved up and down on his mobile screen. After we said "Namaste," he looked toward us. We sat on the chairs on the porch and began the conversation. "You seem to be looking at your phone. Is the internet good in the village?"
"The internet is there, but it doesn't connect well. Sometimes even phone calls don't go through," he said. "We raised this issue many times, but no one listened."
In this village, located about 14 kilometers from Jorpati, electricity and roads are quite good. Sonam is a young man who returned two years ago after working in Malaysia for several years. He is planning to go for foreign employment again. "There is no work in the village. Even down in the city, the salary is not good. Inflation is so high. It feels like there is no choice but to go abroad," he said.
This time, he is making up his mind to vote for the first time before heading overseas. As soon as the topic of the election came up, he shared whom he would vote for and why. "In previous elections, I was abroad. This will be my first vote. I am giving it to someone new," Sonam has already decided. "I feel like Kulman Ghising might do something."
While we were talking about the election, 33-year-old Kaushal Lama from the same village also arrived. He, however, has not yet decided whom to vote for. "Previously, I voted for CPN-UML. Now, I don't know who to vote for," he said.
While touring Kathmandu-3, we met a significant number of voters like Kaushal who were in a dilemma or had not yet decided whom to vote for. The Setopati team visited Wards 1, 2, and 3 of Kageshwari Manohara Municipality, Gokarneshwar Municipality, and Ward 6 of Kathmandu Metropolitan City within this constituency to speak with as many voters as possible.
A total of 16 candidates including those from various parties are competing in the constituency. They include CPN-UML leader Rameshwar Phuyal, Ramesh Aryal of Nepali Congress (NC), Rastriya Swatantra Party's (RSP) Raju Nath Pandey, Ujyalo Nepal Party's Kulman Ghising, Nepali Communist Party's (NCP) Niraj Lama, and Rastriya Prajatantra Party's (RPP) Sundar Singh Bohara (Sundar Ram).
Based on our analysis after speaking with voters, the main competition here is between RSP's Pandey and Ujyalo's Ghising. In our assessment, Pandey is slightly ahead of Ghising. However, the gap between the two is within a range where the result could go either way. Moreover, the number of voters who still have not decided whom to vote for is large. Their final decision will determine the election result.
Many voters who say they will vote for Pandey have not met him. Some do not even recognize him. Having resigned from the post of Kathmandu Metropolitan City police chief to join the election, voters are also unaware of the issues he has raised or his past work. They did not seem particularly interested in that either. In fact, it appears voters here have not chosen Pandey, but rather the 'bell' (the election symbol of RSP).
For the voters ready to vote for the bell, it would not have mattered if RSP had fielded Raju Pandey, Sharma, or Adhikari in Kathmandu-3. This is because voters here seem ready to choose the party, not the individual candidate. Some voters mentioned they decided to vote for the bell because Balen Shah joined RSP. Many voters who decided to vote for the bell said they have faith in the team of Rabi Lamichhane and Shah. Despite some questions regarding Lamichhane's passports and legal cases, some voters said they chose them because he and Shah are standing together.
In this constituency of 64,479 voters, RSP seems to have attracted many voters who previously voted for NC and UML. Among the voters who told us they would vote for the bell this time, two-thirds said they voted for NC and UML in the last election. Within this two-thirds, those who previously voted for NC and those who voted for UML are roughly equal in number. Why do such a large number of voters who voted for NC-UML in the last election want to vote for RSP this time?
China Timilsina, a resident of Suvidha Tole in Kathmandu-6, said, "I am voting for RSP this time because NC and UML could not do anything." There is an extreme shortage of water in Suvidha Tole. This is the issue voters here raise in every election. However, she complains that no one has solved the people's problem by bringing water to this area yet. "In our place, there is a shortage not just of drinking water, but also water for washing dishes and clothes," Timilsina said. "The old ones did nothing. Maybe the new ones will do something!"
Another reason for RSP's lead here is the first-time voters. Most of the new voters we met prefer RSP. Srishti Chapagain of Gokarneshwar-6 turned 18 this year. She has registered her name on the voter list and is voting for the first time. She has already decided whom to vote for. Like Chapagain, some who say they will vote for RSP mentioned Shah removing businesses from the footpaths, managing parking, and doing well in education while serving as KMC mayor. "I’m voting for the bell because Balen Shah is in RSP. He brought a system to the country for the first time! He removed the waste. He tried to work," she reasoned.
In Kathmandu-3, in terms of candidate personality, there is a lot of voter attraction toward Ghising. Almost all those who say they will vote for Ghising gave him credit for removing the 18-hour-long load shedding. Prashant Dhimal of Alapot, Kageshwari-2, is one of them. "We are able to carry mobiles because Kulman Ghising lit the electricity, aren't we?" he said. "Otherwise, it was difficult even to charge a mobile due to load shedding." Some even mentioned that after joining the election government, he brought budgets for electricity and roads for several areas of Kathmandu-3.
There were many who said they would vote for him hoping he would perform in other development works just as he did in ending load shedding. The main reason Ghising is a competitor in Kathmandu-3 is his track record and the expectation that he can perform in the future. Voters are not particularly interested in his newly formed party, Ujyalo Party Nepal. But they want to vote for Ghising. Therefore, in this region, there is a competition between a strong "individual" and a strong "party." It is a competition between Kulman Ghising and RSP.
We met many undecided voters who are still debating whether to vote for Ghising or RSP. They like Ghising, the candidate and RSP as the party. Some said they are still in a dilemma. One voter from Gokarneshwar-6 is in such a dilemma. He had always voted for NC before. This time he thought of giving it to the new ones. But he shared he is in a great dilemma whether to vote for Ghising 's party or Shah's. "Kulman Ghising is in the heart, I have faith in Balen Shah," he said. "This time I won't vote for the old ones, but I haven't decided which new one to vote for."
Where are Ghising's votes coming from? The majority of voters saying they will vote for Ghising are those who voted for NC and UML in the past. In our analysis, nearly three-fourths of the voters intending to vote for Ghising voted for NC and UML in the past. Compared to UML, more voters who previously voted for NC are attracted to Ghising. In this constituency, Santosh Chalise of NC had won the last parliamentary election. Therefore, the votes NC received here previously were high. And our analysis is that most of the votes RSP and Ghising will receive this time will also come from NC.
Prashant Dhimal of Kageshwari Manahara-2 had voted for Santosh Chalise previously. He said he also voted for the NC candidate in the local elections. But he mentioned being fed up seeing the local government and MP do nothing and instead colluding when public land in front of his own house was registered in an individual's name. "This is that land," he said, pointing to the land in front of his house. "Such people won't build or change the country. They have piled up so much money. Instead, let a Ghising’s son eat it. I will vote for him."
A man walking from Tarebhir toward Suntakhan in Gokarneshwar-3 said he had already decided to vote for Ghising. "I won't waver this time. I will vote straight for the Ujyalo Nepal Party's symbol, the light bulb," he said. "He is the one who freed us from load shedding." According to him, the electricity poles in Tarebhir were in disarray for some time. "When he was minister for three months, he immediately had the electricity poles here fixed. So why not vote for him?" said the man, who did not want to disclose his name. Previously, he had been voting for UML. Now, he said he doesn't even want to hear the name of UML. "I am disgusted with UML because of the incidents during the Gen Z Movement," he said.
In Kathmandu-3, we also found that Ghising has some communal votes. We found a huge attraction toward Ghising in Gagalphedi, Tarebhir, Suntakhan, and several Tamang settlements in the city within Kathmandu-3. Mainly because RSP and Ghising will pull votes that previously went to NC and UML, the votes for these two parties will decrease significantly. In previous elections, this region was won alternately by NC and UML. UML won in 1999, NC in 2008, UML in 2013 and 2017, and NC in the last election.
In our conversations, there are more voters saying they will vote for NC this time compared to those saying they will vote for UML. There is another dimension to this. Even now, many of the undecided voters are those who previously voted for NC and UML. If those voters return to NC, NC will also rise in the competition. If UML voters return, it will also bring a respectable number of votes. Many voters who previously voted for UML have not been able to decide whom to vote for now. Whether they return to UML at the last moment or vote for other parties will determine the total votes UML receives.
A voter in Gokarneshwar-6 is disappointed that while NC changed its leadership after the Gen Z Movement, UML maintained its old leadership. He said he would vote for NC this time because they changed leadership. He wished to keep his name confidential. "Congress showed it by changing leadership. Gagan Thapa did well. He is a man with courage. That's why I'm voting for Congress this time," he said. "I have no hope from the new ones."
An elderly NC active member residing in Gokarneshwar-7 said that although he was about to leave the party but would stay in NC after Gagan Thapa was elected president. "Congress was about to be finished. Now at least the seeds are saved. If Sher Bahadur Deuba were still the president, I would have voted for a new party. Since it's Gagan Thapa, I'll vote for Congress," he said.
This time, UML candidate Rameshwar Phuyal is from Kageshwari. He is expected to get many votes from this village. While touring the entire region, we hardly found anyone criticizing Phuyal. Many remembered him for doing good work when he was an MP in 2013. 45-year-old Nirmala Lama is one of them. She remembered the hardship she faced in 2003 when she had complications during childbirth. "At that time, one had to walk all the way to Sundarijal to go to the hospital. Now, if someone has complications, an ambulance comes to the village," she said. "There is insurance at the hospital, the schools are good. Sahid Park has been built. Rameshwar Phuyal has done a lot. Now people keep saying 'new, new,' what will they do? So, I will vote for the person I know."
We found that many voters here blamed the then prime minister KP Oli for the incident where youths were killed during the Gen Z Movement. For that reason, many voters were angry toward UML. Many voters were also interested in the money found burning at Sher Bahadur Deuba's house on September 9, 2025. Many voters who watched the video of burning notes at Deuba's house said they would not vote for NC. 53-year-old Indira Bhandari from Suntakhan, Gokarneshwar-4, said she doesn't even want to look at the leaders of the old parties anymore. "Regardless of what happens in the country, the prime minister needs to be accountable. But Oli did not show his responsibility. He didn't play the role of a guardian," Bhandari said. "Many laps were emptied. Many had sindoor wiped away from their forehead. Seeing that, I stopped liking the old party." She says she has lost faith in the old parties as they are not loyal or responsible toward society.
Voters who previously voted for NC but are currently undecided are being pulled in three directions. Some are thinking of voting for NC again. Some are wondering whether to give it to RSP or Ghising. And some said that hope increased after the leadership change and Gagan Thapa's election as president. However, they still have not finalized whom to vote for.
"Gagan Thapa has done well. He is someone who came up through struggle. I feel he can handle the country. Balen Shah is also okay. He came in with a bang. I don't look at it as new or old. I'll give it to whoever speaks convincingly," said a young voter we met at a shop in Ramhiti. We met three other youths who were in a similar dilemma. They were torn between voting for NC or Ghising. One of those voters is Bijay Lama. He said, "I'm not voting for the bell. Didn't you see how they dragged the carts in the metropolis? They kicked at the gut of those working to make ends meet! They didn't build a system. It felt like they acted as if this is a city where only kings live. It would be fine if they worked by explaining things properly. We won't vote for someone who doesn't create an environment to work and survive. In our area, there's Ramesh Dai from Congress. He's a man of action. He brings development. Ghising is also there. We are in a dilemma about whom to give it to. We haven't decided yet."
Many who wanted to vote for RSP said, "Let's see them once." "The old ones did nothing, maybe the new ones will do something, let's see once," this was the first sentence almost everyone said to us. When asked what work RSP would do if they went into government or what their expectations were from this party, many people were confused. After thinking for a while, they said, "They will bring development, take action against the corrupt." Some said they were voting for RSP just to spite the old parties. 64-year-old Shambhu Paudel of Kumarigal said he had always voted for UML until now. But he said he would not vote for UML under any circumstances this time. "Shouldn't UML and Oli apologize after young children were shot during the Gen Z Movement? They were shot for speaking against their misconduct, how many parents' laps were emptied! What morality allows one to say there was infiltration when shots were fired while they were in the government?" he said. "Shouldn't they accept that it was their weakness? Even if it's just to spite them, I'm voting for the bell this time."
Sharmila Paudel of Gokarneshwar-9, however, said she does not feel like voting because the old ones did no work. "Nothing happens by voting for anyone. Neither is education good, nor is health treatment cheap. If you don't have money, educating children is harder than breaking a mountain," she said. "So this time, I'm in no mood to vote at all. Let's see what happens."
We asked what would happen if RSP also failed to work as they hoped in five years. Sant Bahadur Tamang of Gokarneshwar-4 said, "Now we'll give it to the new ones, maybe they'll do something! This time's vote will last for five years anyway." He just said this and laughed.
On our question, the common comment from voters was—they are going to give RSP a chance once. If they do not do good work, they will look for an alternative. Chiranjeevi KC of Kathmandu-6 said, "If these ones also do not listen, the people will chase them away. Their eyes must be open."
Sita Sapkota, also from Kathmandu-6, said nothing would go wrong by voting for RSP once. "This time we will quietly vote for the bell. We watched for so many years hoping someone would do something. Now what's the harm in giving it to the bell once?"
Mingma Sherpa of Gokarneshwar-3 is an NC member. In this election, he also wants to change his vote. "I am a Congressi, but let RSP run the government. Any party runs the government for five years. If they don't perform, we'll change the vote in the next election," he said.
Due to this wave of voting for new parties and the attraction toward RSP including Balen Shah, it appears there will be a primary competition between RSP's Raju Pandey and Ujyalo Nepal Party's Kulman Ghising in Kathmandu-3.
