The latest decision of the Khanal-Nepal faction of CPN-UML has ended the possibility of a majority government immediately after toppling of Prime Minister (PM) KP Sharma Oli for now.
A meeting of lawmakers of the faction at the Singha Durbar Monday morning has decided to not resign en masse as they had threatened and instead decided to not attend the whole process of floor test.
PM Oli is taking the motion for confidence vote to the House Sunday. The possibility of Oli passing the floor test has ended with the faction's decision to remain absent as Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) has not issued whip on lawmakers to either vote in support of or against the government leaving them free to use their conscience.
Oli will lose the post of PM after failing the floor test but the decision of Khanal-Nepal faction has also ended the chance to immediately form a majority government.
The current strength of House of Representatives (HoR) is 271 after CPN (Maoist Center) expelled four lawmakers who joined CPN-UML after the Supreme Court (SC) invalidated unification of UML and Maoist Center on March 7.
Ruling UML currently has 121 lawmakers, NC 63 (but two are suspended), Maoist Center has 49 (including Speaker), JSP 34 (including two suspended) and three lawmakers are independent.
The parties will need to get 136 votes to form majority government which does not look possible without support of the Thakur-Mahato faction of JSP.
NC, Maoist Center and the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of JSP had planned to form majority government if at least 20 lawmakers of the Khanal-Nepal faction were to resign as that would have reduced the strength of House to 251 leaving the parties to muster support of just 126 which would have been possible with support of 17 lawmakers of the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of JSP.
The opposition alliance now cannot muster majority without support of the whole JSP or resignation or expulsion of lawmakers of the Khanal-Nepal faction. Now that the faction has decided to not resign, Oli in all likelihood will also not expel lawmakers of the faction to make it easier for the opposition to form a majority government.
President Bidya Devi Bhandari will have to invite UML to form the next government in capacity of the largest party in the House in accordance to Article 76(3) of the Constitution if the opposition parties canot muster majority to form a coalition government as per Article 76(2) of the Constitution.
The UML government will have to pass the floor test within 30 days and it will again fail the floor test if Oli does not hold dialogue with the dissident faction during the period and convince the leaders to move forward together and the Thakur-Mahato does not support the government.
The PM will again lose the post and President Bhandari will have to invite any person with chances to muster majority in the House to form the government in accordance to Article 76(5) of the Constitution. The PM appointed in that manner will also have to pass the floor test within 30 days.
