One of the many narratives Prime Minister Balen Shah built about previous governments before September 9 was that they had given foreign ambassadors and even lower-level diplomatic officials direct access from Singha Durbar to Baluwatar, thereby increasing foreign interference in Nepal’s internal affairs.
In an effort to challenge this narrative, PM Shah adopted a policy of not holding one-on-one meetings with representatives of any foreign embassy after taking office on March 27.
However, recent developments show that the prime minister has not only backed away from this policy of “diplomatic distance,” which he had followed since the beginning of his tenure, but has also clandestinely begun diplomatic engagements bypassing even the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
It has emerged that Shah has made a 180-degree shift in his foreign policy and taken two important diplomatic steps through his close advisors.
1. Chief advisor’s secret Delhi visit
Without informing the Foreign Ministry, PM Shah sent his chief advisor, Kumar Byanjanakar (Ben), to Delhi to hold talks with India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval.
The meeting, said to have taken place in the first week of July, has not yet been formally communicated to the Foreign Ministry. Neither the prime minister nor his advisor Ben has discussed this matter with the Foreign Ministry.
A high-ranking Foreign Ministry official confirmed that the meeting took place, but stated that the ministry has no information regarding the agenda of the discussion.
Contrary to the Shah government's unannounced policy and practice so far – where the prime minister, ministers, or any high-ranking government representatives do not hold secret meetings with foreign leaders or representatives – PM Shah’s Chief Advisor Ben held a solo meeting with Doval.
The Nepal government will have no official record of what was discussed during Ben’s meeting with Doval as PM Shah’s emissary because no representative from the Foreign Ministry was present at the meeting.
However, it has been found that Rabi Lamichhane, president of the ruling Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), was aware of Ben's clandestine visit to Delhi.
According to a source, when some close party leaders inquired about the meeting, Lamichhane reportedly replied, "Kumar Ben went to Delhi after informing me."
2. Preparations for one-on-one meetings with ambassadors
Another diplomatic step taken by PM Shah is the preparation to hold individual meetings with the ambassadors of India and China in Kathmandu.
Immediately following Chief Advisor Ben's Delhi visit, PM Shah has begun preparations for separate meetings with the Indian and Chinese ambassadors. However, he has not formally notified the Foreign Ministry about this matter either.
A Foreign Ministry source said that Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal inquired about this matter with Ben only after news regarding it became public.
According to the source, only when asked by the foreign minister did Ben reply that preparations were underway for one-on-one meetings with the Indian and Chinese ambassadors, and that once the meetings were confirmed, the process would be advanced through the Foreign Ministry's channels.
Earlier, PM Shah had refused to meet Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who was coming to Kathmandu to deliver an invitation for a visit to India on behalf of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following which Misri canceled the visit altogether. PM Shah had adopted a policy of not holding one-on-one meetings with officials below the rank of another country's prime minister or foreign minister.
Indian Foreign Secretary Misri’s Nepal visit, scheduled for May 11, was canceled at the last minute. Although the Foreign Ministry officially defended the cancellation by stating that "dates had not been finalized," the visit was halted precisely because PM Shah refused to hold bilateral talks with the Indian foreign secretary.
Prior to that, even when US President Donald Trump's special envoy Sergio Gor visited Nepal, the prime minister had refused to meet him.
So far, he has only held a one-on-one meeting with Masato Kanda, president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), during his Nepal visit – and that too only due to the strong insistence of Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle.
Initially, PM Shah was not willing to meet the ADB president either. He agreed only after Finance Minister Wagle convinced him that a meeting was necessary as the ADB is Nepal's largest development partner.
However, immediately following his Chief Advisor Ben's visit to India, PM Shah has begun preparations to meet Indian Ambassador Naveen Srivastava – again without informing the Foreign Ministry and on the initiative of the Prime Minister's Office itself.
With this, the course of the "nationalist" image that PM Shah tried to build by claiming he would not hold clandestine meetings with diplomats like previous prime ministers has come to an end. Going a step further, he has begun arranging secret diplomatic meetings while sidelining the Foreign Ministry, the formal medium representing the country in international relations.
Three main reasons for the U-turn
After facing all-around domestic and foreign pressure recently, PM Shah – who had distanced himself from foreign diplomats during his 100-day tenure to build a "nationalist" image – is making a U-turn and becoming diplomatically active while bypassing the Foreign Ministry.
There appear to be three main reasons behind this:
1. RSP-India relations and balance of power
RSP President Lamichhane visited Delhi in the first week of June along with two of his close leaders, Bipin Acharya and Deepak Bohara, at the invitation of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
During the visit, Lamichhane held high-level meetings with Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor Doval, among others. In a way, India welcomed him by rolling out the red carpet.
It is understood that the grand welcome received by Lamichhane from India generated apprehension in the PM Shah that he might lag behind in contact with the Delhi establishment. An RSP leader suspects that due to this apprehension, Shah may have bypassed the Foreign Ministry and mobilized his trusted confidant Ben in diplomatic engagements.
By sending Ben to India, PM Shah has sent a message that he wants to establish direct contact with Delhi himself, rather than through the RSP.
"The prime minister's team might have thought that this contact would also be useful in keeping the power balance within the party in the right place," said an RSP leader.
Thus, a sort of competition in relations with India has begun to appear between PM Shah and the RSP.
Following the inclusion in the statute passed by the party's first general convention in Chitwan that "if party guidelines are not followed, the parliamentary party leader will automatically lose their position," distrust between the ruling RSP and its own government has increased. Amid this distrust, PM Shah has recently started taking active initiatives domestically as well as diplomatically.
2. Pressure and suspicions from Indian media
Lately, Indian media outlets have continuously run news reports stating that public anger against the Shah government is growing in Nepal, demands are being made for his resignation, and this government will not last for more than seven months.
Such reports have appeared even in newspapers and channels close to the BJP.
RSP leaders believe that PM Shah and his team have started becoming diplomatically active themselves also because they suspect these unverified reports could be hints given by the Indian establishment.
3. Domestic criticism and internal siege
Lately, one criticism after another has been directed at PM Shah in domestic politics. Criticisms that began with the management of squatters have intensified with the passport printing controversy.
Although PM Shah had promised to resolve the squatter issue quickly, displaced squatters remain stranded. On the other hand, it has become public that PM Shah and his team crossed constitutional and political boundaries to exert undue pressure on the head of the CIAA (Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority) and intimidated officials of the Department of Passports in the passport printing case.
The government also had to endure heavy criticism over the incident involving Ganesh Nepali's self-immolation.
Sources say that PM Shah, having been pushed onto the defensive after all these events, may have begun diplomatic efforts to take India into confidence.
Sidelining Foreign Ministry and engagement with private sector
On the domestic front, particularly in the economic sector, PM Shah has not only increased his activity but has also completely bypassed Finance Minister Wagle and the Ministry of Finance in this engagement.
As part of intensifying meetings with officials from various sectors after completing 100 days of government formation, PM Shah has been continuously holding meetings and discussions with entrepreneurs and businesspersons from the private sector. Finance Minister Wagle has not been involved in any of those discussions.
The meetings with the private sector began on July 8. In a meeting facilitated by RSP lawmaker and industrialist Bidushi Rana, PM Shah, a six-member team from his secretariat, and six representatives of industrialists and businesspersons participated.
According to participants, PM Shah stated in a very informal manner that he wanted to discuss matters with private sector representatives and facilitated them in putting forward their views.
Subsequently, he held discussions with representatives of the Federation of Contractors' Association of Nepal on July 9, the Independent Power Producers' Association, Nepal (IPPAN) on July 10, the Hotel Association of Nepal on July 15, and office-bearers of the Federation of Woman Entrepreneurs' Associations of Nepal on July 16.
Similarly, he held discussions with footwear manufacturers on July 17, and with stockbrokers, investors, Securities Board of Nepal, and Nepal Stock Exchange officials on July 20.
During the meeting with stock market stakeholders, PM Shah said he was aware of the fear created in the capital market in the name of the government and expressed commitment to improve this situation. Prior to that, he had also discussed stock market issues during a meeting with Governor Biswo Poudel.
The prime minister met stock market stakeholders after facing criticism that share investors had lost assets worth around Rs 500 billion since the new government took office. Following his increased engagement, the stock market has begun to recover. Within three days of trading, investors’ assets increased by Rs 214 billion.
Likewise, PM Shah met and held discussions with office-bearers of the Garment Association of Nepal on July 21 and with office-bearers of the Handicraft Association of Nepal on July 22.
He has also started meeting representatives of political parties separately.
As part of this initiative, PM Shah held talks with Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leaders including Chairman Rajendra Lingden at Singha Durbar on July 16. According to the prime minister's secretariat, the prime minister and RPP leaders discussed recent political developments, the latest situation in the country, and various matters of mutual interest.
Chairman Lingden, Senior Vice-chairman Buddhiman Tamang, and Chief Whip Khusbu Oli participated in the discussion.
Moreover, after all-around criticism of the 3 percent "equality tax" imposed on private schools and health institutions through the budget for the current fiscal year, PM Shah announced the withdrawal of the tax via his social media account on Tuesday.
A Cabinet meeting held on Wednesday decided to scrap the equity tax, endorsing the prime minister's announcement made on social media.
