The globally televised spat between US President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was described as “good television” by Trump.
Zelenskyy insulted his hosts and was led out of the White House.
Back in Europe he was welcomed back as a hero, for standing up to Trump. This will have negative consequences for Ukraine and widen the transatlantic rift.
Behind the performative meltdown there were many interests at work and a major geopolitical shift.
Zelenskyy used the event to tell the world that he was unhappy with Trump re-working the ‘deal’ that he had initially proposed. He had offered to sell Ukraine’s state-owned rare earth minerals to the US at a discount in exchange for security guarantees.
Before the public spat, the UK and France had done some groundwork. A month earlier, on January 25, the UK had signed a 100-year security partnership with Ukraine for free trade and strategic relations, that gave Britain access to the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Azov (which Russia considers an internal sea).
In turn, Britain promised Ukraine US$3.78 billion (GBP 3 billion) yearly and agreed to become its partner for defence, energy and critical minerals.
France, Britain and Poland are also considering deploying troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping as and when a peace agreement is negotiated.
However, for this, the European countries want the US as a security guarantor to provide aircover in this Russian guarded conflict zone.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met President Trump asking for such a security guarantee. Trump declined.
Trump recognizes that Ukraine is losing badly and the US needs to cut its losses before the Ukrainian collapse. He contrasts his own position with former President Joe Biden’s ‘foolish’ war much appreciated by his domestic “Make America Great Again” base. Moreover, this is an ideal time for uncontested policy shifts as Trump said, “If it doesn’t happen quickly, it may not happen at all.”
For the Russian reset, Trump’s team is managing Zelenskyy and the Europeans shocked by Trump’s historic 90-minute ice breaking phone call with Putin on February 13. Neither Ukraine nor Europe has had any role so far in the reset, which has several facets.
First, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke to NATO’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group on February 12 and informed them that it was unrealistic to expect any return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders or NATO membership for Ukraine.
He told them that any security guarantees would have to be backed by European and non-European troops and not by NATO and that no US troops will be deployed.
As President Macron said, the Europeans view this as surrender.
Second, US Vice President J.D. Vance lectured the EU on their double standards on democracy and human rights, stating that it must both pay and play a bigger role in European security. Europe will have to increase its defence spending, which Trump sees as a win for the American military industries.
To underline that this was not just rhetoric and Trump would work with Russia closely, the US joined Russia in voting against a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly that condemned the Russian war against Ukraine.
It then followed up by voting with Russia on the UN Security Council resolution that took a neutral position on the war.
Now, Trump wants Zelenskyy to sign a deal on excavation of Ukrainian minerals which he says is ‘payback’ for US$350 billion that the US paid in this war.
Trump’s deal offers that the US will partner with Ukraine in excavating rare earth minerals. The profits from the sale of the minerals will go into a ‘reconstruction investment fund’ for infrastructure.
This means the US will own 50 percent of all Ukrainian minerals, hydrocarbons and infrastructure.
In addition, the US will hold the maximum percentage of the fund’s equity and decision-making power while security guarantees are not mentioned.
Trump said the presence of the US “dig-dig-digging” on Ukraine soil would deter Russians from coming into Ukraine. Ukraine, which has already lost 20 percent of its territory, now stands to lose most of its mineral resources.
On the heels of the Trump-Putin phone call, a high-level follow-up meeting took place in Riyadh between the US led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Russians led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The intent was to re-develop broken diplomatic relations, negotiate an end to the conflict in Ukraine, possibly lift sanctions on Russia and build US-Russia cooperation.
Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the state-owned Russian Direct Investment Fund present at the Riyadh meeting said that by leaving Russia, U.S. businesses lost around US$300 billion - a point well taken by businessman Trump.
Moreover, the majority of rare earth minerals are in the Russian-controlled Donbass region of Ukraine and in Russia’s Arctic region.
Trump aims to expand American influence in the Arctic, hence his statements about acquiring Greenland and Canada.
But half of the Arctic region is with Russia and it has almost 500 military bases there. Russian cooperation, therefore, is essential for mining and for the shortest routes.
The reality is that the two are neighbors in the Pacific and it was only a century ago that Russia controlled Alaska before selling it to the US in 1867.
The Russian position about profit as opposed to threats in their bilateral relations with the US, appeals to Trump.
However, Putin is a hard negotiator and he is clear that European troops on Russia’s border even if termed as peacekeepers will be labeled combatants and treated as such.
Ukraine will not be part of NATO and Putin wants a de-militarized buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine. He also realizes that there will be no ceasefire till these terms are accepted.
Moreover. the Russians will negotiate for a security architecture with Europe in which they are included.
If Trump wants a re-set, then he will have to deliver on some of these terms. Up to then, the war will go on. Meanwhile, Ukraine will now resist the US and the Europeans will play their own games.
The Oval Office meltdown showed that the Trump team is hardening its stance. Trump has outed Zelenskyy and given short shrift to the Europeans. But this is just the beginning of the great trans-Atlantic shift.
(The author is Adjunct Professor, O P Jindal Global University at Sonipat, India. This article was originally published under Creative Commons by 360info)
