The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime not only marks a significant moment in Syria’s history but also has wider geopolitical implications for the Middle East.
The consequences of Assad’s fall are far-reaching. Among the biggest geopolitical beneficiaries are Israel and Turkey.
For Syria, the immediate challenges include political fragmentation, sectarian divisions and a ruined infrastructure that complicates refugee returns and reconstruction.
Regionally, Iran’s influence has been severely weakened, while Russia’s retreat signals a major shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. At the same time, Syria’s future under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) raises serious concerns, given its Islamist roots and controversial governance record.
Even as the fall of Damascus has reshaped the geopolitics in the Middle East, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, impacted by a decade of lessons from the Arab Spring and the Gezi Park protests, emerges as a leader attempting to reorder not only Syria but the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Combining a powerful mix of religious ideology, strategic pragmatism and regional ambition, Erdogan foresees a post-Assad order that reinforces Turkey’s dominance and possibly redefines the political map of the Middle East.
Religious Ideology and Erdogan’s Rule
At the core of Erdogan’s leadership lies an ideological foundation influenced by Turkey’s unique version of political Islam.
Erdogan draws heavily on the principles of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose vision of Islamic governance aligns with Erdogan’s push for a regional order where political Islam occupies center-stage.
The Arab Spring of 2011 initially seemed to validate this ideology, as Islamist movements rose to power in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere. However, the rapid collapse of the Brotherhood in Egypt and the wider region served as a sobering lesson for Erdogan.
He witnessed firsthand the perils of overreach and political mismanagement, which alienated crucial sections of society and foreign stakeholders.
Learning from these failures, Erdogan has opted for a more pragmatic approach: supporting groups like HTS in Syria while simultaneously projecting Turkey as a stabilizing power in the region.
His ideological ambition remains intact, but it is now tempered with strategic calculations aimed at securing long-term influence.
Syria a test Case for Erdogan
Syria is apparently Erdogan’s ambitious and strategic undertaking.
For over a decade, Turkey has been the most consistent supporter of the Syrian opposition, despite facing economic, political and domestic costs. While Assad’s allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—once frustrated Turkey’s ambitions, the collapse of the Syrian regime has given Erdogan a chance to redesign the country’s future.
Erdogan’s alliance with HTS, now the dominant force in Damascus, reflects his ability to deal with ideological and strategic challenges. Turkey shielded HTS during its years in Idlib, provided economic and logistical support, and shaped the group’s decisions.
The fall of Assad is evidence of Turkey’s Syria policy, positioning Erdogan as the chief power broker in Damascus.
Turkey’s goals in Syria are clear:
First, Erdogan aims to address domestic discontent by facilitating the return of millions of Syrian refugees.
Second, Ankara views the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an existential threat and seeks to dismantle their autonomy in northeastern Syria; and
Third, by backing HTS and engaging Arab tribes, Turkey can ensure a stable post-Assad Syria aligned to Ankara’s interests.
While Turkey’s influence is growing, the future remains fraught with challenges.
HTS’s promises of inclusivity and unity are met with skepticism, especially among Syria’s Kurds, Druze, and Christians, who fear marginalization. Also, Erdogan’s support for an Islamist-led administration raises concerns about long-term stability and international legitimacy.
Regional and Global Implications
Erdogan’s success in Syria has broader consequences for the region. Russia’s retreat from Syria, weakened by its war in Ukraine, and strained ties with Armenia, marks a shift in regional power.
Turkey, once constrained by Moscow’s dominance, now enjoys greater freedom to manoeuvre—not only in Syria but also in the Black Sea, Libya and South Caucasus.
Iran, another key player in Syria, has also suffered a significant setback. The fall of Assad disrupts Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” limiting its ability to project power through Hezbollah and other proxies.
Erdogan’s ascendancy in Syria could further erode Iran’s influence, opening space for Turkey to strengthen ties with Arab states and the West.
Domestically, Erdogan’s victory in Syria enhances his political standing.
Criticised for years over his Syria policy, Erdogan can now claim vindication, silencing his opponents and rallying nationalist support.
The prospect of renewed cooperation with the United States—especially under an administration sceptical of Middle East entanglements—adds another layer to Erdogan’s strategic calculus.
However, the risks remain significant. Syria’s devastation makes immediate refugee repatriation unrealistic and HTS’s ability to govern inclusively is uncertain. If sectarian tensions, Kurdish resistance, or jihadist rivalries resurface, Turkey could face a resurgence of instability along its southern border.
Lynchpin of new regional order
Erdogan’s role in Syria reflects his broader ambition to reshape the Middle East and North Africa region in Turkey’s image—a vision rooted in a blend of neo-Ottomanism and political Islam.
Unlike the Muslim Brotherhood’s failures in Egypt, Erdogan’s approach emphasizes adaptability, pragmatism and strategic patience. By leveraging Turkey’s military power, economic influence, and ideological appeal, Erdogan seeks to position Ankara as the lynchpin of a new regional order.
Syria is the test case for this vision. If Erdogan succeeds in stabilizing Syria, repatriating refugees and containing Kurdish forces, he will solidify Turkey’s role as the dominant regional power. However, failure to address Syria’s deep-rooted divisions and HTS’s extremist tendencies could undermine Erdogan’s gains, plunging the region back into chaos.
The fall of Damascus has created both opportunities and risks for Turkey and President Erdogan.
By combining ideological ambition with strategic pragmatism, Erdogan has positioned himself as a key architect of Syria’s future and a central figure in reshaping the Middle East. If Erdogan succeeds, his vision of a stable, Sunni-led Syria under Turkey’s influence will mark a transformative dimension in regional politics.
For now, Erdogan stands at a crucial moment in Middle East history, with both the opportunity and burden to remake the geopolitics of the region in Turkey’s image. Whether he succeeds or fails will determine not only Syria’s fate but the balance of power across the entire region.
(The author is Director, Inter University Center for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala, India. This article was originally published under Creative Commons by 360info)
