Youths and students began gathering at Maitighar for a protest organized by the Gen-Z movement before nine Monday morning. Their numbers gradually swelled. By 11 am, the crowd had grown so large it stretched from Babar Mahal all the way to the Bijuli Bazar bridge. As the crowd grew, the protesters moved toward New Baneshwor.
The protest had no specific leadership. The government had recently banned social media platforms like Facebook and YouTube, so the Gen-Z youths (born between 1997 and 2012) had been using networks like TikTok, Reddit, and Discord to call for the protest for several days. Their calls were supported by influencers and celebrities.
The influencers, who had built their identities through social media, were angered by the government's sudden decision to ban these platforms. Additionally, the Nepali film and music industries, which relied heavily on YouTube, were directly hit. This is why they openly supported the youths' call for action on social media.
During this time, the "nepo baby" trend also emerged on social media. In particular, videos that contrasted the lavish lifestyles of politicians' children with the difficult lives of ordinary people's children went viral on TikTok.
Government response and escalation
The young people, who were already upset about the social media ban, were further enraged by a condescending comment from Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli at the UML's Statute General Convention in Lalitpur. Targeting Facebook and other social media platforms, Oli said, "We've been telling social media companies for a year to register under Nepal's law, but they just say, 'We don't know your Constitution.' When we asked them to register, four people lost their jobs. Is the job of four people more important than national self-respect?"
The youths interpreted the decision to ban social media as an attempt to suppress their voices. This anger was clearly represented on the banners of the young people who had gathered at Maitighar since the morning. This angry group then moved agitatedly toward New Baneshwor. The government had deployed a large number of security forces near the Parliament building in New Baneshwor.
Around noon, the Gen-Z protestors broke through the police barricade before entering the Parliament building. Although they broke through the barricade, the police did not use batons. Instead, they used water cannons. However, the large crowd was not dispersed by the water cannons alone.
Around 12:15 p.m., the protestors began shaking the gate of the Parliament building and climbed onto the building where the security guards are stationed. Up to that point, the police had not used tear gas. But when the protestors entered the Parliament building, the police began firing tear gas shells and then rubber bullets. Failing to control the crowd, the police guarding the Parliament building opened fire. As we publish this report, 17 persons have died from police gunfire in Kathmandu alone. This is a higher death toll in a single day than even during the Janaandolan II in 2006 (2062/63 BS).
Official statements and analysis
According to the Armed Police Force Chief Raju Aryal, security agencies had anticipated that a large number of youths would take to the streets in the capital. There were also suspicions of infiltration. During a meeting at the Ministry of Home Affairs on Sunday, security agencies had briefed officials that there could be infiltration and a large number of young students would be present.
"We had estimated during the security meeting that a lot of students would come," Aryal said. "In the New Baneshwor incident, children were used as shields. It had been decided during the Home Ministry's security meeting that force should not be used against children."
Police analysis suggests that while the Gen-Z youths were at the front when the barricades were removed, groups that infiltrated the protest then took the lead. However, Nepal Police Chief Chandra Kuber Khapung stated that they were unable to identify those who infiltrated the protest.
"There was a possibility of infiltration. Various political parties had also shown their support and were giving supportive speeches. We knew it would happen. But how do you filter them out?" Khapung said. "Our plan was to keep things as calm as possible and use minimal force, as infiltration could worsen the situation. We wanted a peaceful protest. But as the situation deteriorated, the District Security Committee had to decide to use force."
According to the heads of the security agencies, all available security forces in the capital were deployed for the protest.
"We had prepared very well. There was a need to place barricades at many places. We deployed all the available personnel and resources we had," Khapung said. "We used them to the maximum extent possible."
It appears that even with the security briefing from the heads of the agencies, the Ministry of Home Affairs did not fully grasp the gravity of the protest. Although Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak was briefed that a large number of young students were gathering for the protest, he was in a parliamentary committee meeting discussing a bill when protestors entered the Parliament building. To prevent casualties, the Home Minister should have been in direct contact with security agencies to formulate a necessary strategy and play a role in dispersing the crowd to prevent it from reaching a point of confrontation. However, Home Minister Lekhak was in the parliamentary committee meeting at the Singha Durbar, seemingly unaware of the protest until nearly 12:30 pm.
Expert opinion
Security experts, however, believe the police failed to analyze the security challenge and prepare accordingly. Former Nepal Police AIG Uttam Raj Subedi said the police failed to understand the challenge of a leaderless movement.
"When a movement has a leader, they can keep the crowd under control," Subedi said. "The police field commander can also talk to the protestors' commander and engage in some give-and-take. This time, since the organizers themselves said it was leaderless, the security forces should have taken it as a challenge of a different magnitude."
Subedi said the police did not anticipate the frustrations stemming from the social media ban, the political situation, and the general unrest with leadership. Subedi himself was in the New Baneshwor area in the afternoon and noted some errors in police deployment.
"They had given permission for the protest at Maitighar. The police placed a barricade anticipating they could reach New Baneshwor. But it didn't seem strong enough," Subedi said. "I think if they had added a few more layers and prevented the youths from entering the restricted area, this level of damage would not have occurred."
He said that the police have controlled protests of this size many times in the past. "Even if the organizers say it will be peaceful, security agencies should have anticipated the possibility of infiltration," Subedi said. "It turned into a tragic event."
Nepal Police and Armed Police have no separate force for riot control. The same police are assigned different roles as needed. Subedi says that a maximum of 7,000 to 8,000 police can be deployed in Kathmandu at one time, even though the total strength of Nepal Police is nearly 80,000.
"Even though the police force has an approved strength of 80,000, about 5,000 positions are often unfilled. Also, a certain number are in training," Subedi said. "Many police officers are assigned to VIP and VVIP security. Others are assigned to provincial government security. That's why there aren't enough security personnel when they are needed for protests like this."
He added that problems like the lack of crowd control equipment are not new. Subedi also commented that the police failed to learn from the damage caused during the protest led by Durga Prasai.
Former Nepal Police AIG Rajendra Singh Bhandari also stated that the police were unable to anticipate the challenge, given the widespread calls for the protest on social media.
"It seems they failed to predict the Gen-Z movement," Bhandari said. "They should have placed three to four layers of security personnel in New Baneshwor, but the police seemed concentrated only at the final point."
Like Subedi, Bhandari said the police failed to realize that anything can happen in a leaderless movement. "Such a leaderless movement moves forward with emotion and agitation. On top of that, people are already heartbroken and frustrated," Bhandari said. "And then the PM made a dismissive comment about the youths' feelings."
Bhandari noted that there were both emotion and motion in this Gen-Z movement. He added that the police in Nepal have failed to adopt "smart policing."
"South Korea, for example, has modern equipment for crowd control," Bhandari said. "Protestors are no longer afraid of tear gas and water cannons. They should use electric barricades that deliver a shock. But police cannot stand by while the Parliament building wall is being damaged."
He said that when he was in the police force, his efforts to acquire crowd control equipment instead of weapons did not move forward. Bhandari commented that there has been a recent lack of competence in both the leadership of the Ministry of Home Affairs and the administrative leadership.
"The leadership from the Home Ministry to the district administration seems immature," Bhandari said. "They are unable to boost morale, supervise, or give immediate orders to their subordinates. The Chief District Officers are inexperienced. The administrators have failed."
He also believes that problems arise when even the organizers are unaware of the momentum a protest can gain.
"Anger, agitation, and hatred have started spilling onto the streets," Bhandari says. "The police who are deployed are also in a dilemma. If they shoot, they are afraid of losing their jobs. If they don't shoot, they are afraid of being attacked, like what happened to a senior superintendent of police and others in Tikapur."
The Nepal Police have been failing at crowd control recently. Two people were killed during the protest led by Durga Prasai in Tinkune, Kathmandu. Similarly, the Lotus Mall in Balaju was looted some time ago. Two people also died during a protest by young people demanding to be included in the EPS Korea language exams in Ekantakuna. In all these incidents, the police failed at crowd control.
