The announcement of candidacy by CPN-UML Vice-chairman Bhim Rawal for party chair in the upcoming general convention has virtually ended any chance of electing office-bearers through consensus.
Party leaders were earlier anticipating that party chair and all office-bearers will be chosen in consensus and election will be held only for central members. But all that has ended after Rawal announced candidacy on Sunday.
Rawal is highly unlikely to beat current Chairman KP Sharma Oli in the election but he will end any chance of consensus even for the rest of office-bearers if he does not withdraw his candidacy for party leadership as Oli may not try for consensus for other office-bearers if there is no consensus for party chair.
Oli may struggle to accommodate leaders close to him and managing the leaders from the erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction of the party and those who have joined from CPN (Maoist Center) will compound matters for him.
The recent statute general convention had amended the statute keeping provision of 15 office-bearers. Informal discussion has even started to increase the number but many are saying that amending the provision less than two months after the statute general convention will not send a right message about maturity of the party.
Standing committee member and Oli's confidant Shankar Pokharel says efforts will be made for consensus but election should be taken normally if that is not possible. "The leadership will have to be wise if there is consensus and the cadres will have to use wisdom if there is election," he quips.
Another confidant of Oli Gokul Baskota says Oli will not seek vote or even hint about his support for any candidate if there is election for office-bearers.
There are many aspirants for the limited number of office-bearers. Many estimated that Ishwar Pokharel would be unanimously elected for the second-ranked post of senior vice-chair but Subash Chandra Nembang may challenge Pokharel. Nembang has not spoken publicly about his claim like Pokharel has, but the former has already started consultation about the issue with his confidants.
Oli may himself struggle to decide whether he should support his confidant Nembang or Pokharel, who he has kept at a certain distance, if Nembang decides to challenge Pokharel.
There are also multiple claimants for four other vice-chairs. Oli wants to make Ashta Laxmi Shakya, who ditched Madhav Kumar Nepal to remain in UML, and former Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Thapa as vice-chairs if there is consensus. He also wants one of the two aspirants for general secretary—Bishnu Paudel and Shankar Pokharel—to be made vice-chair. He wants to pick Surendra Pandey, another leader from the erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction, or someone else as the fourth vice-chair.
Ghanshyam Bhusal, Kiran Gurung, Raghuji Panta and a few others also aspire for the post of vice-chair.
Current Secretary Gokarna Bista is preparing to contest for vice-chair or deputy general secretary if he is not repeated as secretary in consensus, according to a source close to him. There will be election even for vice-chair in that situation.
The most closely watched post in the upcoming general convention is that of general secretary. Many feel that the person Oli proposes for the post will be his political heir.
Paudel and Shankar Pokharel are the strongest contenders for the post while Prithvi Subba Gurung is also in the race. Pandey also considers himself to be a contender for general secretary.
A standing committee member confides that Paudel and Pokharel will not contest for the same post. "The situation until now shows there will be election for all office-bearers including party chair. But one cannot say what will happen in the last hour," the standing committee member adds. "Oli himself will stop Paudel and Pokharel from contesting for the same post irrespective of who contests for which post."
Bista and Pradeep Gyawali both have claims for the solitary post of deputy general secretary. The number of aspirants will rise if there will be election.
There will be still more aspirants for the seven posts of secretary below deputy general secretary. Bista, Gurung and Gyawali among the current secretaries are aspiring for a higher post this time. Bishnu Rimal and Raghbir Mahaseth are also vying for the post while former Maoist leaders Lekh Raj Bhatta, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi and Prabhu Sah also aspire for the post.
Current central members Bhanubhakta Dhakal, Khaga Raj Adhikari, Binda Pandey and Padma Aryal also aspire for the post as do Oli's confidants Baskota and Mahesh Basnet.
Oli will struggle to lobby for any candidate as most of the aspirants are close to him. He also wants to make one former Maoist leader secretary.
The party has already passed a policy prohibiting panels of candidates in election and leaders will not be able to formally reveal which candidate they support. This may lead to the majority of aspirants filing candidacy.
