The ruling coalition looks set to sweep election for the National Assembly.
The election will be held for the seats that will be vacant after term of eight CPN-UML lawmakers, four CPN (Maoist Center) ones, four CPN (Unified Socialist) and three Nepali Congress (NC)—whose term was determined to be for four years following a draw—ends on March 4, 2022. The term of Ram Narayan Bidari of Maoist Center nominated by the president is also expiring.
Provincial lawmakers (48 weighted votes each) and chiefs and deputy chiefs (18 votes each) of rural/municipalities vote in the National Assembly election.
UML had majority in Province 1 and Bagmati before the party split. It had won many seats in the National Assembly election in 2018 due to the alliance with Maoist Center, and the election two years later for the seats vacant after expiry of the term of those who drew a two-year term after unification with Maoist Center.
NC had won just a few seats in the election held for 56 seats—three National Assembly members are nominated by the president on recommendation of the government—as per the single transferrable vote system.
The then CPN formed after unification of UML and Maoist Center had swept all the seats apart from two in Province 2 where it allied with the then Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) in the election in 2020.
The Supreme Court (SC) has invalidated unification of UML and Maoist Center while Madhav Kumar Nepal has split UML and registered Unified Socialist in 2021.
NC, which would have only four lawmakers left in the National Assembly if there were no splits in the communist party, stands to gain the most in the upcoming election. If the ruling coalition fights this election together UML will suffer the fate that NC suffered in 2020 and win no seat.
UML has lost its majority in Province 1 while it was already weak in Province 2 and the majority of its lawmakers have opted to join the Nepal-led party there. UML candidates will suffer losses even in Bagmati. UML candidate Ram Bahadur Thapa lost by-election from Bagmati this year when the then Khanal-Nepal faction of UML allied with NC and Maoist Center.
Unified Socialist is weak in Gandaki where it has no provincial lawmaker. But NC is strong in local bodies there despite UML being the single largest party in the provincial assembly. The ruling coalition will sweep elections even in the province if they stay together.
Unified Socialist has only one lawmaker in Lumbini but the ruling coalition has comfortable majority in the province. NC, Maoist Center and Unified Socialist have a coalition government in Karnali where local representatives alone cannot win UML any seat.
Unified Socialist is the single largest party in Far West and UML cannot win any seat there if the ruling coalition stays together.
