Madhav Kumar Nepal's new party is set to be strongest with respect to CPN-UML in Province 2 and weakest in Gandaki.
Thirteen of the 21 CPN-UML lawmakers in province 2 have already pledged allegiance to Nepal. "There are 13 of us lawmakers in CPN (Unified Socialist) in Province 2," UML lawmaker Rabindra Baitha told Setopati. "There is no chance of anyone of us returning to UML. Almost all of us are currently in Kathmandu. We will start the process of forming parliamentary party after registration in the Election Commission once we return."
Bhim Acharya, who has been close to Madhav Kumar Nepal for years and lost the election for UML parliamentary party leader in Province 1 to Sher Dhan Rai, became chief minister (CM) of Province 1 on Thursday after changing camp to join Chairman KP Sharma Oli.
But he does not look likely to serve as CM for long as UML will lose the current majority once CPN (Unified Socialist) forms provincial parliamentary party. He will have to pass the floor test if that happens.
Lawmaker from the erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction Rajendra Rai claims the faction still has 12-15 lawmakers even without Acharya. Acharya has been made CM by Oli after claiming that he will be able to keep a large number of lawmakers from the dissident faction in UML.
UML has 51 seats in the provincial assembly but one of the lawmakers is speaker and another lawmaker is suspended. Nepali Congress has 21 lawmakers, CPN (Maoist Center) 15 including deputy speaker, Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) three and RPP and Federal Democratic Forum one each.
Acharya will need support of 47 lawmakers to pass the floor test.
The new party led by Nepal claims that it still has enough lawmakers to form government in alliance with NC, Maoist Center and JSP.
Oli had offered the post of CM to Acharya like he did to Ashta Laxmi Shakya who was made Bagmati CM for abandoning the Khanal-Nepal camp.
Shakya's terms as CM also doesn't look set to continue for long unless she joins the Nepal-led new party. She will also have to pass the floor test when CPN (Unified Socialist) forms provincial parliamentary party.
UML has 56 seats in the 109-strong provincial assembly. The erstwhile Khanal-Nepal faction had 20 lawmakers including Shakya.
Nepal has already confirmed that Shakya became CM with his consent and there are speculations that she may still join the new party. But that looks unlikely as she has already attended standing committee meeting of UML after Nepal applied for registration of the new party.
"There were 20 of us when Shakya was leader of our group. It is still not clear which party she will choose," UML lawmaker Laxman Lamsal told Setopati. "There will not be significant difference in our number no matter which party she chooses."
The Khanal-Nepal faction had majority in UML parliamentary party in Far West and lawmakers of the faction had supported the government of CPN (Maoist Center) in the province defying the instruction of Oli.
But how many lawmakers the new party will manage to take away from UML is not clear now that the faction's main leader in the province Bhim Rawal has ditched Nepal and opted to remain with Oli in UML.
UML has 25 seats in the 51-strong provincial assembly and 17 of them were with the dissident faction earlier. CPN (Unified Socialist) claims that it still has support of more than 13 lawmakers.
"We will form parliamentary party in a few days. I won't say the exact number now. But it is certain that the majority of UML lawmakers will come with us," UML lawmaker Dirgha Sodari said.
Four lawmakers of the then Khanal-Nepal faction had crossed floor to vote for CM Mahendra Bahadur Shahi to save the Maoist government in Karnali. The four have since been expelled by UML.
UML currently has 16 lawmakers in the province and two of them have pledged allegiance to the new party.
The new party will be weakest in Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. The then Khanal-Nepal faction had one and two lawmakers in Gandaki and Lumbini provinces respectively. But none of them have pledged to join the new party until now.
