As Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) goes to the polls, there is just one pre-electoral alliance in place — between the National Conference (NC), a local party, and the main national Opposition party, the Indian National Congress.
There is no alliance between any of the regional political parties of J&K such as the NC, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), the Peoples’ Conference and the less grounded Apni Party.
The all-season friend of the NC, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), has not spared its pocket borough of Kulgam, in South Kashmir, either in the 2020 district level elections or in this month's legislative assembly elections.
The regional parties are united in their agenda for Kashmir but divided by politics.
Take the case of the two main parties of Jammu and Kashmir — the NC and the PDP. Both derive political assertions from the same premise: the socio-cultural uniqueness of J&K and the special protection (now withdrawn) given to the region within the Constitution of India.
They also appeal to and seek support from the same electoral base.
Their political canvas appeals to a limited political constituency and so competition between them trickles down even to the village level units of each party. Such rivalry is the foundation of their political existence.
Yet, there are sharp political differences between the NC and the PDP.
The NC has a cadre or volunteer force of party workers which is spread far and wide and its workers have suffered the brunt of the violence of separatists.
Religious element
While the NC does not appeal to religious organizations, the PDP has been traditionally favored by religious organizations in J&K.
However, the PDP’s support among religious organisations has faltered after members of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) decided to contest the legislative assembly elections.
The JeI aims for “Iqamat e Deen” (establishing religion-as-system) and seeks “Nizam-e-Mustafa” or sharia rule. Many of its former members are contesting as independents leaving implications primarily on PDP.
Worried about its eroding base, PDP President Mehbooba Mufti demanded "revocation" of the ban on JeI in August 2024. Earlier, she had protested against the government decision to ban JeI.
The electoral contest, which used to be primarily between the NC and the PDP, has become multi-cornered with the emergence of new political players in the past two decades.
Their emergence is linked to the diminishing influence of separatist politics, especially after 2019 when the special status of the state was revoked. There are now many more parties and independent candidates in the fray.
Existential questions
There are also existential questions for the NC and PDP, which remain focused on constitutional autonomy and its guarantee. If they give up the demand for autonomy and special status for J&K, they would lose their regional specificity and importance.
These may seem good reasons for the two parties to come together. But ground level competition and irreconcilable social bases will make this difficult.
But there was one instance when they were able to unite.
The immediate period following the revocation of the special status of J&K and its division into two Union Territories created conditions for political consensus between the NC and the PDP, as well as other political forces.
This led to the Peoples’ Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), named after Gupkar Road in the capital, Srinagar, where the political elite lives and where the agreement came about.
However, the alliance was formed in an exigency without agreement on deeper political issues. In a declaration on August 4, 2019, local and national party leaders declared their political commitment to "protect" and "defend" the removal of the special provisions under Article 370 and Article 35-A of the Indian Constitution.
The PAGD pledged to reverse the process. However, they were unable to maintain the alliance even in the elections for the District Development Councils in 2020. In these elections, the PAGD parties/supporters contested each other in several seats in the Kashmir Valley.
Alliance partners the PC complained of "breach of trust" against NC for fielding proxies and left the alliance in 2021. The Jammu & Kashmir People's Movement (JKPM) followed it in 2022, reducing the alliance to an ineffectually functioning "four-party group".
The poor electoral performance also led to fissures sooner than expected, with a radical dip in the PDP’s vote share in Jammu, and other parties faring badly in the Kashmir Valley.
The NC and PDP contested the general elections of 2024 separately. They have continued to do so in the ongoing legislative assembly elections as well. In effect, the PAGD did not re-group to contest these much awaited and crucial elections.
Delhi's role
The local parties of J&K also suffer from the peculiar compulsion of all regional parties in India.
They constantly look to be on the right side of the central government in Delhi, in anticipation of its largesse for their states. This makes the national parties an important factor in any alliance formation.
Kashmir politics has seen many such instances. The political landscape of the erstwhile state altered significantly, for example, after the NC-Indian National Congress alliance in the mid-1980s. The alliance brought Farooq Abdullah back to power after his dismissal, but the state legislature was left without any opposition.
The current NC-INC alliance is clearly propelled by the importance of the "Jammu factor". With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has substantial political and electoral presence in Jammu, neither the NC nor the PDP, either singly or jointly, can defeat it there.
However, the NC-Indian National Congress alliance allows for some "friendly" contests between the parties.
With or without asking for the restoration of the special status of J&K, the local parties are fighting an existential battle that has affected the pre-poll alliances in Kashmir. Their contest essentially remains among themselves, even as they face a mighty national party, the BJP.
A lot of bargaining will be necessary for a post-poll alliance, if they seriously wish to keep the BJP out.
(The author is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India. This article was originally published under Creative Commons by 360info)
